2023W17 Review

A -23% week...

All rules went out of the window

Desperate and revenge trades

It's taking a toll on my emotional well-being

To take the 20p challenge?

The idea is good... an I aim 10p at a time... but the problem is with the SL

100p SL? 30p SL?

Maybe I should go back to "square one"... with 100p SL, 1:10 play

Grade: D

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2023W16 Review

Bad week, -119p, with a win rate of 69%

Several times of closing trades too soon due to fear of losing, ended up leaving money on the table.

However, also at least 3 trades that were profitable because I closed early enough, otherwise would have been losses.

Big individual losses are still the culprits, twice hitting SL of over -100p, twice more over -30p.

One -155p here:

It came right after a salvaged trade which saw a floating -100p became a +20p profit, took 7.5 hrs from 1pm to 8:30pm. I had the feeling that after dropping over 100p from the day high, it's a good time to buy. 

It wasn't.

There were also several false hopes along the way, with long pinbars hinting that a bullish reversal might be on the card. It's a bad situation, but it'll be too harsh to say it's a bad trade.

Another -133p here:

Bought at a key level of $2000, with a stop loss that covers the next key level of $1990. Turned out the support was as low as $1980 instead.

In hindsight, even a 200p SL that covers both key levels wouldn't have been sufficient to turn a profit.

Another bad situation.

One lesson learnt:

There might be opportunities to recover losses after a big losing trade, but it's important to keep emotions in check while doing a recovery.

Grade: C

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The Four Fears in Trading

1. Being wrong
2. Losing money
3. Missing out
4. Leaving money on the table

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2023W15 Review

+26.2p in 24 trades

Had it not for that trade that won 99.9p, this would have been another bad week.

Then there are these two trades... 

I shorted near a support level, things were fine until price suddenly dropped aggressively.

FEAR of losing money caused me to cut my loss, and then FEAR of missing out made me chased the price. What might have been a +30 turned out to be a -87.

Trade #1 below was profitable, but was rather lucky to be profitable in short time? Shorted at a key number level of 2000 and took a profit of 18p. Had I aimed for more, might miss it and need to hold for much longer time.

Trade #2, SL was only 13p above a key level of 2005. An easy target for stop hunting. Should have had higher margin above 2005, and it would have been at least a breakeven trade, or a profitable one if I had the gut.

Trade #3, was trading a 3-line strike, but it's not strictly a qualified pattern because the bullish engulfing covered just under 50%. Seemed unlucky to have missed by pips, but it shouldn't have been a trade if I was cautious.

Trade #4 was influenced by Alex, who reminded me that a long was possible on the verge of data release. What a bull!

The next trade was telegram-called.

Trade 5, 6, 7 were plays after data release, capitalising a day support of 2005. Trust the range?

Then, there were a few "mistakes"... including one that clicked on the wrong direction, curious SL that's not big enough... 

Overall, not a terrible trading week because at least I could feel in touch with the market.

I practised more cautions, gave more patience, but still had moments of FOMO.

I was too cautious in setting TPs in some trades, especially US sessions.

55% win rate wasn't bad, but wins were small, and losses were big. Same old problem.

What could have made this week better?

• wait for retest and confirmation
• aim for bigger TP at US sessions

Grade? B-

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2023-04-12 Stop Losses, Stop Hunting, S&R

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2023-04-11 Trading Rules (XAUUSD)

DRAFT: 2023-04-11

Trade Planning (Beginning of trading day)

• Mark major supports & resistances from D1, H4 charts
• Check Bollinger Band upper, lower and mid-bands
• Check data release hours
• Check D1 ATR11
• Mark opening price
• Mark daily S&R around noon using m5 chart, at least 3 key levels on each side

Trade Entry (Assessing trade opportunities)

• How much price has moved in a direction
• Avoid entry if price in awkward positions between or before key numbers ($5, $10, previous peaks)
• Avoid entry if it's within 30 min of key data
• SL covering key numbers and next key level
• Any 3-line strike pattern will be a bonus
• Q: Is this a FOMO trade? Yes --> stop
• Q: Is this a revenge trade? Yes --> stop
• Q: Is the TP reasonable or is it influenced by previous trade(s)? 

Trade Management (Trades in hand)

• If positive
• Is the TP still achievable? Yes --> maintain
• Any sign of change in momentum? Yes --> consider adjust TP, or take profit
• What might be the impact of the next key hours?
• If negative
• Any sign of pattern change, from range to trend or vice versa? Higher tf MA crossover? Obvious break of S&R?
• Yes
• Any opportunity for defense trade?
• Cut loss?
• No
• Any chance to add position?
• Stick to the plan?
• What might be the impact of the next key hours?
• Reentry:
• Price retesting S&R level, could be reversal, or confirmation

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2023-04-10 Lessons on Fear

Red line = 1986, a support level I drew earlier in the day.

Missed the entry when it first tested the level.

Entered at the 2nd test, it went up before it came back down to my entry again, and I quit.

FEAR of losing money.

But it seemed to confirm the support, so I went in again, this time I made about 20p, before the price tested the support yet again.

Believing in the range and support, I bought again. It was consolidating fine, until price suddenly dropped very quickly, putting me in over -50p of floating loss. I closed the trade.

FEAR of losing money.

Then I thought the price will accelerate its fall, so I sold it at the middle of the candle, only for it to quickly pull back up, giving me a -30p realised loss.

FEAR of missing out.

Instead of 2 steady winning trades of roughly 40 to 50p, I ended up with 2 losses and 1 win, a net of about -60p.

Trades of recent couple of weeks have been heavily influenced by fear, ever since those big losses that knock my account from 800 to less than 600. Too cautious when letting profit run, too anxious to close a trade in breakeven, and of course, the trending market caught me by surprise. I was still using the techniques of range play, which I'm more familiar with.

Is it all about confidence? The fear of seeing the bottom of the barrel? The fear about my current financial stress?

I'm going to re-draft my trading rules and plans.

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