2023W22 Review

The best week in trading life so far.

88% win rate in 25 trades

+176.5 pips

20% equity return

Noticeably, there's no big loss this week. In fact, there wasn't a single trade that triggered the SL.

3 losing trades, but 2 were closed manually and pre-maturely (would have been wins), and 1 was experimenting on playing the data, which turned out to be a very weak movement.

No doubt, there were luck factors. Most price movements were favourable, even though they might have moved into floating losses. Most trades hit TP in reasonably short time (all within one hour).

So what are the takeaways?

• I made some distinctions between S&R lines. Thinner line for near-term S&R, e.g. intraday or within a couple of days; thicker line for medium-term, i.e. tested by several day candles over weeks; thick and dark lines for long-term S&R, i.e. monthly candle or Bollinger Band.
• Trust the process more, trust the bounce and reactions at key levels
• Be more cautious with entry, although not saying I was overly cautious. Luck factor also meant that I didn't miss too many entries that I wanted
• When price gaps up or down, it really GAPS even if the candles are not showing it! Pending orders might be a few pips near current price level, but slippage due to data releases can move the entry by 50 pips.
• Come Friday night, I could really feel the fatigue, after being in the game for a week. Trading does take attention, focus and energy.
• Constantly reminded myself not to let arrogance creep in especially after a handful of wins.
• Still missed a few entries because I wasn't monitoring, and a few of those entries might not have turned out well... Luck factor.

Grade: A

This was the first week that I fulfilled the criteria of returning to trading live again. I need at least 3 more weeks like this!

~~

2023W20 Review

It's a week that I lost just over $500 (on demo account), that's about -10%. But still I don't think it's a terrible week... except the last handful of trades

All was quite well, with some small gains and rather big losses, perhaps the expected return with this high hit rate and low return strategy.

Emotion... is still biggest thing, even on a demo account. 

When I was on winning streak of 2, 3, or 4, I was able to stay rational, be patient, stick to the plan, wait for opportunities to show themselves instead of keep looking for one, no FOMO even when price ran away.

But when winning streak got longer, like 4, 5, 6, then complacence and arrogance started to creep in. 轻浮，浮夸，不严谨。

The worst thing, however, was after one or two losses... then I tend to become aggressive, go on offensive and try to regain lost capital,  start to tweak my game plan, which may not be a good thing for an inexperienced trader.

In terms of market movement, biggest killer was still one-way train movement.

I trade on "reactions" and "rebounds", 10p can be obtained, even on a one-way train. But one-way train has another voodoo... which is speed. 10p may be hit in a few seconds, or 1 min, and that is very exciting, tempting me to catch more small profits.... then inevitably, will get trapped before too long.

Grade: B

~~

2023W19 Review

The first week in a long while that I'm fully on a demo account

My strategy is to trade for bounces at key levels, and aim for small tp, typically 10p, or occasionally 20p or a bit more if it's in active US sessions.

After one week, it seems quite workable. While it's not a blanket statement (e.g., if it's a a big move that will easily cover a range of 150p or 200p in 15 minutes), prices tend to react at key levels.

So, provided if there's no FOMO, and wait patiently for entries close to key levels, aiming for 10p of reaction bounces while risking 30 to 60p is usually viable.

Anyway, it's still a negative week, owing in large to the two trades that resulted in -90p. By the way, that's a 200p move in 20 minutes... exactly the kind of move to beware of.

Don't overtrade

Don't chase the action

Be patient

Grade: B

~~

2023W15 Review

+26.2p in 24 trades

Had it not for that trade that won 99.9p, this would have been another bad week.

Then there are these two trades... 

I shorted near a support level, things were fine until price suddenly dropped aggressively.

FEAR of losing money caused me to cut my loss, and then FEAR of missing out made me chased the price. What might have been a +30 turned out to be a -87.

Trade #1 below was profitable, but was rather lucky to be profitable in short time? Shorted at a key number level of 2000 and took a profit of 18p. Had I aimed for more, might miss it and need to hold for much longer time.

Trade #2, SL was only 13p above a key level of 2005. An easy target for stop hunting. Should have had higher margin above 2005, and it would have been at least a breakeven trade, or a profitable one if I had the gut.

Trade #3, was trading a 3-line strike, but it's not strictly a qualified pattern because the bullish engulfing covered just under 50%. Seemed unlucky to have missed by pips, but it shouldn't have been a trade if I was cautious.

Trade #4 was influenced by Alex, who reminded me that a long was possible on the verge of data release. What a bull!

The next trade was telegram-called.

Trade 5, 6, 7 were plays after data release, capitalising a day support of 2005. Trust the range?

Then, there were a few "mistakes"... including one that clicked on the wrong direction, curious SL that's not big enough... 

Overall, not a terrible trading week because at least I could feel in touch with the market.

I practised more cautions, gave more patience, but still had moments of FOMO.

I was too cautious in setting TPs in some trades, especially US sessions.

55% win rate wasn't bad, but wins were small, and losses were big. Same old problem.

What could have made this week better?

• wait for retest and confirmation
• aim for bigger TP at US sessions

Grade? B-

~~

2023-04-12 Stop Losses, Stop Hunting, S&R

~~

2023-04-11 Trading Rules (XAUUSD)

DRAFT: 2023-04-11

Trade Planning (Beginning of trading day)

• Mark major supports & resistances from D1, H4 charts
• Check Bollinger Band upper, lower and mid-bands
• Check data release hours
• Check D1 ATR11
• Mark opening price
• Mark daily S&R around noon using m5 chart, at least 3 key levels on each side

Trade Entry (Assessing trade opportunities)

• How much price has moved in a direction
• Avoid entry if price in awkward positions between or before key numbers ($5, $10, previous peaks)
• Avoid entry if it's within 30 min of key data
• SL covering key numbers and next key level
• Any 3-line strike pattern will be a bonus
• Q: Is this a FOMO trade? Yes --> stop
• Q: Is this a revenge trade? Yes --> stop
• Q: Is the TP reasonable or is it influenced by previous trade(s)? 

Trade Management (Trades in hand)

• If positive
• Is the TP still achievable? Yes --> maintain
• Any sign of change in momentum? Yes --> consider adjust TP, or take profit
• What might be the impact of the next key hours?
• If negative
• Any sign of pattern change, from range to trend or vice versa? Higher tf MA crossover? Obvious break of S&R?
• Yes
• Any opportunity for defense trade?
• Cut loss?
• No
• Any chance to add position?
• Stick to the plan?
• What might be the impact of the next key hours?
• Reentry:
• Price retesting S&R level, could be reversal, or confirmation

~~

2023-04-10 Lessons on Fear

Red line = 1986, a support level I drew earlier in the day.

Missed the entry when it first tested the level.

Entered at the 2nd test, it went up before it came back down to my entry again, and I quit.

FEAR of losing money.

But it seemed to confirm the support, so I went in again, this time I made about 20p, before the price tested the support yet again.

Believing in the range and support, I bought again. It was consolidating fine, until price suddenly dropped very quickly, putting me in over -50p of floating loss. I closed the trade.

FEAR of losing money.

Then I thought the price will accelerate its fall, so I sold it at the middle of the candle, only for it to quickly pull back up, giving me a -30p realised loss.

FEAR of missing out.

Instead of 2 steady winning trades of roughly 40 to 50p, I ended up with 2 losses and 1 win, a net of about -60p.

Trades of recent couple of weeks have been heavily influenced by fear, ever since those big losses that knock my account from 800 to less than 600. Too cautious when letting profit run, too anxious to close a trade in breakeven, and of course, the trending market caught me by surprise. I was still using the techniques of range play, which I'm more familiar with.

Is it all about confidence? The fear of seeing the bottom of the barrel? The fear about my current financial stress?

I'm going to re-draft my trading rules and plans.

~~

20110616 - Trade Plans

GBPUSD











Bullish Bat pattern, however entry is placed just above 100% instead of at 88.6%, otherwise the SL will present too large a risk to cover the next support.

Entry 1.6076
SL 1.6031
TP1 1.6230
Trading Buddy Scale 8


NZDJPY











Bullish Butterfly pattern, coincides with 2 more Fibonacci levels. Entry placed at 127% retracement.
Entry 64.25
SL 63.90
TP1 64.90
Trading Buddy Scale 8


NZDUSD











Another Bullish Butterfly pattern.
Entry 0.7990
SL 0.7945
TP1 0.8060
Trading Buddy Scale 6

~~

20110602 - EURJPY Trade

This is a 8-pointer on Trading Buddy Scale.

Bullish Bat overlap with a larger Bullish Gartley.

1.618AB=CD overlap with larger 1.13AB=CD.

RSI Divergence.

Kumo bottom as support on the daily chart, also pivots for several Chikou turns.

Placed entry at 114.80, SL rather large at 114.20 (just enough, maybe too marginal, to cover 88.6% for a larger Bullish Bat). TP 115.70 for a risk:reward of 1:1.5.

~~

20110602 - EURAUD Trade

Bearish divergence formed on 4H Chart. Entry price also 161.8% projection from previous low, on 25 May. SL about 30pips. First target 1.3455, 61.8% retracement of current run. Next target can be 1.3432, 38.2% of bigger rally.

~~

20110503 - GBPUSD Trade

Bullish Butterfly formed on 1H chart, PRZ converges around 1.6590. Making day shadow around 60pips, though it's so early in the morning to confirm it say day shadow.

Entered short at 1.6588, SL 1.6538 (50pips), 4H chart just below EMA50. Target 1.6670 (61.8% retracement of CD).

Another risk is, it could be a bigger bullish bat, which will be completed at around 1.6527.

~~

20110407 - USDCAD Trade Plan

Bullish butterfly formed, with PRZ around 0.9582 and 0.9573. Candle tested PRZ and pulling back (not completed). Placed a buy order at 0.9578, with SL 0.9533, which is just under 141% retracement of the pattern.

As USDCAD is in long term bearish run, TP is set at 38.2% retracement of CD at 0.9655.

~~

20110406 - EURUSD Trade

Bearish butterfly formed, with PRZ 1.4296, 1.4302, 1.4307. Price momentum slowed at PRZ. Direct short as price was turning down from PRZ. Day shadow 97pips, actually abit longer than usual. SL was a challenge because there's no clear resistance on top. Put at 1.4320, which is slightly higher than 141% retracement. TP 1.4345, around 61.8% of CD.

SL triggered after 4h10m. Always a challenge to set SL when there's visible no resistance (based on Ichimoku or EMAs) on top. Actually a warning sign was when price retraced 38.2% and resume run, a sign of continuation! Should take note.

~~

20110331 - EURUSD

Overlap of Bearish Gartley and smaller Bearish Butterfly. PRZ Between 1.4169 to 1.4183.

Entry at 1.4183, also fulfilled day shadow ~60pips.

SL 1.4223, just above X

TP 1.4100, 61.8% retracement of current run.

~~

20110331 - GBPUSD Plan

Bearish Bat formed, with Potential Reversal Zone between 1.6105 to 1.6130.

Alternate Bearish Bat limit is at 1.6166.

Plan entry at 1.6142 to short on Bearish Bat, also day shadow ~74pips.

SL 40pips at 1.6182.

TP is 61.8% retracement of run, at 1.6020.

~~

20110330 - GBPUSD Bearish Butterfly

Trading Buddy,

Here you go:

Bearish butterfly formed on 30m chart, rather ideally. PRZ 1.6052, 1.6058, 1.6068. When see the chart, PRZ already tested, and price had retraced to slightly below 1.6052. PRZ also coincide with day shadow (74pips). Placed entry at 1.6060, got matched. TP 1.6016 (61.8% retracement of CD). SL 1.6085, which is slightly above day high.

Moved SL to 1.6059 after having 30pips floating profit. Hit target and closed position.

Not big, but hope can find consistency :)

~~

EURUSD#14 - Weekly Homework

Euro dropped last week, but wasn't a very huge drop. It's enough to form a black candle engulfing the previous week's body though.

On the weekly chart, price failed to break above EMA50, also means Chikou couldn't break above Kijun. Price was being supported by Kijun around 1.3185, which will continue to be the immediate support. Another stronger support observed on the weekly chart is still 1.3000. As for resistance, EMA50 (currently at 1.3420) is the immediate resistance, followed by EMA200 & Kumo flat around 1.3350. Basically, support resistance levels are similar to those mentioned last week, only the sentiment turned to be even slightly (not too much) more bearish.

On the daily chart, EMA200 successfully bounced price off it, and out of the Kumo, a sign of bearishness. Price is now moving in a flag / channel. It won't be surprise if price might rebound to as high as 1.3380 again, or even 1.3480 (EMA50, Kumo flat bottom). However, 1.3550 will be a strong resistance. Daily Tenkan (around 1.3185) proven to be a support, which coincides Chikou's attempt to pierce through the thin Kumo. For the time being, Chikou has rebounded after touching the bottom of the thin Kumo. Once broken 1.3183, a strong bear run might continue, though 1.3000 will be another support

On the 4-hourly Chart, 1.3185 is the immediate support, successfully supported the price last week. However, with a bullish cloud ahead, it might be a decision time, to break above 1.3300 and aim for 1.3550, or go below 1.3185 and test 1.3000.

~~

EURUSD#13 - Weekly Homework

Euro formed a nice long hammer pattern on weekly chart last week. Though the huge black candle 2 weeks ago, thick Kumo managed to pull price back into the cloud again. That coincides with FB80 retracement for a run from 10 Sep to 4 Nov 2010.

A few resistances on the monthly chart:
1. Kijun & EMA50 - around 1.3550
2. Chikou has hit price action, will it break above it?
3. EMA50 for Chikou - around 1.3460
Support only around 1.3000

Resistances on the weekly chart:
1. Kijun for Chikou & EMA50 for price - around 1.3430
2. Kumo top - around 1.3550, also EMA50 for Chikou
3. Kumo bottom for Chikou - around 1.3800
No clear support other than 1.3000, which is also around Kumo bottom.

On the daily chart, price as break above EMA200 and into the Kumo. However, Friday's high is still inside a channel formed by the lower-highs and lower-lows since 4 Nov. It's still unclear whether it will break out from the channel, or being rejected by the Kumo and stay inside.
A few resistances:
1. EMA50 for both price and Chikou - around 1.3520
2. Kijun, also Chikou pivots - around 1.3625, also FB50 for recent downtrend
3. Kumo top - around 1.3830, also Kijun for Chikou
Supports:
1. EMA200 for Chikou - around 1.3320 to 1.3380
2. Kumo for Chikou - around 1.3180

4-hour chart, Chikou has break above price AND Kijun, showing some strength. Price action had also broken up into the cloud. If price manages to go above 1.3450 early Monday, then resistances are:
1. EMA200 - around 1.3520, near 1.3550 strong resistance
2. Kumo resistance for Chikou
Supports:
1. Kijun and Price action for Chikou

Could be a tricky week to trade. Long term trend still bearish, but if break above 1.3550, might go up further to 1.3830, a short term bull run. Bear run will continue once 1.3000 support is broken.

~~

EURUSD#12 - Weekly Homework

EURUSD didn't go up as I thought, in fact it was almost all the way down, triggered by the tension at Korean Peninsula and Ireland debt crisis.

Last week's low 1.3198 was around FBR67 from September, so 1.3180 will be the immediate support for now.

On Ichi indicators, monthly, weekly and daily charts have all shown bearish signals.

On the 4-hourly chart, 1.3050 to 1.3080 might be the next support (chikou support), and then at 1.3000, which might also be a psychological support level.

There are some room for upward movement, with resistance at 1.3380 to 1.3400 (Daily Kumo bottom). Next resistance is 1.3480, if this resistance is breached then it might signals a short term bull trend that might hit 1.3750, with a few more resistances along the way (1.3550, 1.3630).

In a nutshell:

R3 1. 3550 (Daily Chikou support)
R2 1.3480 (Daily Chikou support)
R1 1.3380 to 1.3400 (Daily Kumo bottom)

S1 1.3180 (FBR67)
S2 1.3050 to 1.3080 (Chikou support)
S3 1.3000 (Chikou support)

~~

EURUSD#11 Weekly Homework

After about 3 weeks of this and that travels, I am back and should pay more attention to the currency pairs again.

This might be an eventful week for Euro. With many important announcements to come, and also it's time to decide the monthly candle formation.

This month's candle formation is shaped by:

1. trend continuation from last month, but resistance found when Chikou bounced back by Kijun in the monthly chart.
2. down trend ever since.
3. slight rebound when supported by cloud in daily chart, and EMA200 and EMA50 in weekly chart.

My guess is Euro will be bullish for a couple of days, with immediate resistance at 1.3730 (4-hourly EMA200) to 1.3750 (4-hourly Chikou support). Another strong resistance is around 1.3865 (fbr 50 of recent downtrend. The pair might linger at that level if it does reach it.

However, if there's too much weakness for it to go up, immediate support at 1.3550 to 1.3590 (4-hourly Kijun). The next support, which might not be strong, at 1.3480, and another stronger one at 1.3381.

In a nutshell:

R3: 1.3910
R2: 1.3865 (fbr 50)
R1: 1.3730 (4-hourly EMA200) to 1.3750 (4-hourly Chikou support)

S1: 1.3550 to 1.3590 (4-hourly Kijun)
S2: 1.3480 (Chikou support)
S3: 1.3380 (daily EMA200, bottom of the cloud)


~~