Also a spinning top on weekly chart, which saw Chikou being rejected by EMA50 and Kijun after a bullish midweek run.
On the daily chart, price action had been steep for more than a month already. As wave target price was fulfilled, there's a high possibility of correction. 1.4185 might be a critical level, breaking which might mean continuation of bull run to the next resistance, in the region of 1.4485.
In a nutshell:
R3: 1.4485
R2: 1.4185
R1: 1.4055 (FB67, level wave target)
S1: 1.3910 to 1.3945 (Chikou support line)
S2: 1.3790 to 1.3840
S3: 1.3630 to 1.3660 (Chikou support line)
~~
Monday, October 18, 2010
GBPUSD#17 - Weekly Homework
Yes, it did come down. But no, it didn't end the week as a black candle.
On the weekly chart, price action has broken above the previous high set back in August, but it actually didn't close above the previous high. The week ended with a spinning top. Still rather unsure! Chikou broke above EMA50, attempted to breach the cloud but failed. Take FB retracement from August 2009 and November 2009, two major resistances at FB67, which are 1.6110 and 1.6010, respectively.
On the daily chart, though a bearish antenna was formed, it's not wise to short this pair too aggressively to be safe, as Ichimoku indicators haven't give signals of weakness. Adventurous play though, can be to short it from 1.6065, with SL covering at least 1.6110.
4-hourly chart, also still bullish signals at least for the time being. However, with thin cloud ahead, a reversal can be rather sharp if it does happen.
In a nutshell:
R3: 1.6350 (FB80)
R2: 1.6110 to 1.6143 (FB67 and Chikou support)
R1: 1.6065
S1: 1.5945 (Chikou support)
S2: 1.5800 to 1.5830 (previous resistance turned support)
S3: 1.5570
~~
On the weekly chart, price action has broken above the previous high set back in August, but it actually didn't close above the previous high. The week ended with a spinning top. Still rather unsure! Chikou broke above EMA50, attempted to breach the cloud but failed. Take FB retracement from August 2009 and November 2009, two major resistances at FB67, which are 1.6110 and 1.6010, respectively.
On the daily chart, though a bearish antenna was formed, it's not wise to short this pair too aggressively to be safe, as Ichimoku indicators haven't give signals of weakness. Adventurous play though, can be to short it from 1.6065, with SL covering at least 1.6110.
4-hourly chart, also still bullish signals at least for the time being. However, with thin cloud ahead, a reversal can be rather sharp if it does happen.
In a nutshell:
R3: 1.6350 (FB80)
R2: 1.6110 to 1.6143 (FB67 and Chikou support)
R1: 1.6065
S1: 1.5945 (Chikou support)
S2: 1.5800 to 1.5830 (previous resistance turned support)
S3: 1.5570
~~
Saturday, October 16, 2010
Moving Stop Loss
I came up with an entry plan.
I came up with a stop loss.
I came up with a target price.
My entry was matched.
My target price was hit at the end of the day.
I lost money.
Why??
I was too kiasu that I moved my SL to a tighter margin too early, a SL that's lower than the initial plan, but not a level that will make me break even.
Lesson learnt? Don't move your SL unless it's to break even level (protect profit), or to put a trailing stop. What good it has to change a SL from 50pips to 30pips? If I could afford 50pips, why reduce? If I think 50pips was a reasonable margin, why change?
It reads, fear.
~~
I came up with a stop loss.
I came up with a target price.
My entry was matched.
My target price was hit at the end of the day.
I lost money.
Why??
I was too kiasu that I moved my SL to a tighter margin too early, a SL that's lower than the initial plan, but not a level that will make me break even.
Lesson learnt? Don't move your SL unless it's to break even level (protect profit), or to put a trailing stop. What good it has to change a SL from 50pips to 30pips? If I could afford 50pips, why reduce? If I think 50pips was a reasonable margin, why change?
It reads, fear.
~~
Sunday, October 10, 2010
EURUSD#9 - Weekly Homework
Gotta give more focus on Euro from now on.
Euro has been bullish for some time now. As Mentor pointed out, it will at least test the flat kumo bottom on the monthly chart. Now it doesn't only test, but actually break into the cloud. Tenkan-Kijun is till in bullish pattern on the monthly chart, but this doesn't give much meaning to short term intraday trades.
On the weekly chart, however, Tenkan-Kijun shows bullish sentiment, albeit is arguably a weak one (crossed below the cloud).
On the daily chart, the price action has gone to far above the cloud. This is when PW comes into play to determine wave targets.
In a nutshell:
R3: 1.4180
R2: 1.4030 to 1.4050 (Last week's high, fb66 retracement, level wave targets)
R1: 1.3945 (Chikou support line on weekly chart)
S1: 1.3790 to 1.3840 (last week's support range in smaller time frame
S2: 1.3630 to 1.3660 (last week's low, Chikou support line)
S3: 1.3330 to 1.3380 (current bull run's 50% retracement)
Personally I don't t expect it to go too much above 1.4050 resistance before it comes down to the range of 1.3330 to 1.3380. However, if it 1.4180 is broken, next target might be 1.4485.
~~
Euro has been bullish for some time now. As Mentor pointed out, it will at least test the flat kumo bottom on the monthly chart. Now it doesn't only test, but actually break into the cloud. Tenkan-Kijun is till in bullish pattern on the monthly chart, but this doesn't give much meaning to short term intraday trades.
On the weekly chart, however, Tenkan-Kijun shows bullish sentiment, albeit is arguably a weak one (crossed below the cloud).
On the daily chart, the price action has gone to far above the cloud. This is when PW comes into play to determine wave targets.
In a nutshell:
R3: 1.4180
R2: 1.4030 to 1.4050 (Last week's high, fb66 retracement, level wave targets)
R1: 1.3945 (Chikou support line on weekly chart)
S1: 1.3790 to 1.3840 (last week's support range in smaller time frame
S2: 1.3630 to 1.3660 (last week's low, Chikou support line)
S3: 1.3330 to 1.3380 (current bull run's 50% retracement)
Personally I don't t expect it to go too much above 1.4050 resistance before it comes down to the range of 1.3330 to 1.3380. However, if it 1.4180 is broken, next target might be 1.4485.
~~
Sunday, October 03, 2010
GBPUSD#16 - Weekly Homework
[Weekly Chart]
A doji was formed last week, also saw Chikou failed to break above flat Kijun. It also closed just below fb80 from August's high. Probably a sign of another XAB is formed. Generally, weekly sentiment is a little unsure.
[Daily Chart]
As Trading Buddy pointed out, no candle manage to close above 1.5833 level (week Flat Kijun). Those long candle shadows indicate uncertainty and tug-of-war between the bull and the bear, with bear appear to be slightly stronger for now. However, the last candle was a bullish engulfing.
[4-hourly Chart]
Just to further zoom in to see the uncertain trend. Even Tenkan is overlapping right on the Kijun now.
In a nutshell:
Uncertain trend, with many supports and resistances to watch out for. Sentiment is more bearish-inclined until the previous high (1.5997) is broken.
R2 - 1.5997 (previous high)
R1 - 1.5920 to 1.5945 (last week's high, previous Chikou support)
C - 1.5800 to 1.5833 (4H Chikou support and Weekly Kijun flat)
S1 - 1.5665 (last week's low0
S2 - 1.5570
~~
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