4 hours before the FOMC rate decision, where will XAUUSD go ?

With 96.5% chance that the Fed will raise rate by 0.25% (I remember it was over 98% just a few days ago), the market is ready for the hike. But the Fed can still move XAUUSD price drastically if they hike more than expected (which is very unusual given the recent trend), or pause the hike. Perhaps what's more likely is the expected 25bps hike being doled out, and followed by a hawkish statement.

In this H4 chart, the "death cross" from the twin tunnels was formed around 20 June, after Gold fell steadily from the historical high on 4 May 2023. As of today, it's on the verge of forming the "golden cross" which might signal a bullish extension. However if the golden cross failed, it's effectively a death cross, which might see God drop further to 1900 level.

Likewise on the D1 chart, SMA20 crossed below SMA50 on 30 May, and is looking to cross above it again, forming a golden cross of its own. A failed cross will again point to 1900 level. It's worth noting that recent bull run from 1900 appears to be a retracement which topped at Fib61.8, adding another reason to expect seeing an immediate downward rally

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2023W22 Review

The best week in trading life so far.

88% win rate in 25 trades

+176.5 pips

20% equity return

Noticeably, there's no big loss this week. In fact, there wasn't a single trade that triggered the SL.

3 losing trades, but 2 were closed manually and pre-maturely (would have been wins), and 1 was experimenting on playing the data, which turned out to be a very weak movement.

No doubt, there were luck factors. Most price movements were favourable, even though they might have moved into floating losses. Most trades hit TP in reasonably short time (all within one hour).

So what are the takeaways?

• I made some distinctions between S&R lines. Thinner line for near-term S&R, e.g. intraday or within a couple of days; thicker line for medium-term, i.e. tested by several day candles over weeks; thick and dark lines for long-term S&R, i.e. monthly candle or Bollinger Band.
• Trust the process more, trust the bounce and reactions at key levels
• Be more cautious with entry, although not saying I was overly cautious. Luck factor also meant that I didn't miss too many entries that I wanted
• When price gaps up or down, it really GAPS even if the candles are not showing it! Pending orders might be a few pips near current price level, but slippage due to data releases can move the entry by 50 pips.
• Come Friday night, I could really feel the fatigue, after being in the game for a week. Trading does take attention, focus and energy.
• Constantly reminded myself not to let arrogance creep in especially after a handful of wins.
• Still missed a few entries because I wasn't monitoring, and a few of those entries might not have turned out well... Luck factor.

Grade: A

This was the first week that I fulfilled the criteria of returning to trading live again. I need at least 3 more weeks like this!

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2023W15 Review

+26.2p in 24 trades

Had it not for that trade that won 99.9p, this would have been another bad week.

Then there are these two trades... 

I shorted near a support level, things were fine until price suddenly dropped aggressively.

FEAR of losing money caused me to cut my loss, and then FEAR of missing out made me chased the price. What might have been a +30 turned out to be a -87.

Trade #1 below was profitable, but was rather lucky to be profitable in short time? Shorted at a key number level of 2000 and took a profit of 18p. Had I aimed for more, might miss it and need to hold for much longer time.

Trade #2, SL was only 13p above a key level of 2005. An easy target for stop hunting. Should have had higher margin above 2005, and it would have been at least a breakeven trade, or a profitable one if I had the gut.

Trade #3, was trading a 3-line strike, but it's not strictly a qualified pattern because the bullish engulfing covered just under 50%. Seemed unlucky to have missed by pips, but it shouldn't have been a trade if I was cautious.

Trade #4 was influenced by Alex, who reminded me that a long was possible on the verge of data release. What a bull!

The next trade was telegram-called.

Trade 5, 6, 7 were plays after data release, capitalising a day support of 2005. Trust the range?

Then, there were a few "mistakes"... including one that clicked on the wrong direction, curious SL that's not big enough... 

Overall, not a terrible trading week because at least I could feel in touch with the market.

I practised more cautions, gave more patience, but still had moments of FOMO.

I was too cautious in setting TPs in some trades, especially US sessions.

55% win rate wasn't bad, but wins were small, and losses were big. Same old problem.

What could have made this week better?

• wait for retest and confirmation
• aim for bigger TP at US sessions

Grade? B-

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2023-04-10 Lessons on Fear

Red line = 1986, a support level I drew earlier in the day.

Missed the entry when it first tested the level.

Entered at the 2nd test, it went up before it came back down to my entry again, and I quit.

FEAR of losing money.

But it seemed to confirm the support, so I went in again, this time I made about 20p, before the price tested the support yet again.

Believing in the range and support, I bought again. It was consolidating fine, until price suddenly dropped very quickly, putting me in over -50p of floating loss. I closed the trade.

FEAR of losing money.

Then I thought the price will accelerate its fall, so I sold it at the middle of the candle, only for it to quickly pull back up, giving me a -30p realised loss.

FEAR of missing out.

Instead of 2 steady winning trades of roughly 40 to 50p, I ended up with 2 losses and 1 win, a net of about -60p.

Trades of recent couple of weeks have been heavily influenced by fear, ever since those big losses that knock my account from 800 to less than 600. Too cautious when letting profit run, too anxious to close a trade in breakeven, and of course, the trending market caught me by surprise. I was still using the techniques of range play, which I'm more familiar with.

Is it all about confidence? The fear of seeing the bottom of the barrel? The fear about my current financial stress?

I'm going to re-draft my trading rules and plans.

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