4 hours before the FOMC rate decision, where will XAUUSD go ?

With 96.5% chance that the Fed will raise rate by 0.25% (I remember it was over 98% just a few days ago), the market is ready for the hike. But the Fed can still move XAUUSD price drastically if they hike more than expected (which is very unusual given the recent trend), or pause the hike. Perhaps what's more likely is the expected 25bps hike being doled out, and followed by a hawkish statement.

In this H4 chart, the "death cross" from the twin tunnels was formed around 20 June, after Gold fell steadily from the historical high on 4 May 2023. As of today, it's on the verge of forming the "golden cross" which might signal a bullish extension. However if the golden cross failed, it's effectively a death cross, which might see God drop further to 1900 level.

Likewise on the D1 chart, SMA20 crossed below SMA50 on 30 May, and is looking to cross above it again, forming a golden cross of its own. A failed cross will again point to 1900 level. It's worth noting that recent bull run from 1900 appears to be a retracement which topped at Fib61.8, adding another reason to expect seeing an immediate downward rally

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