2023W25 Review

61% win rate, -235 pips, nearly -47% of drawdown.

One of the worst week, if not the worst, in my trading journey so far.

61% win rate didn't sound too bad, but losing 270pips on the final trading day and ended with half the account size, was definitely awful.

One key factor was FOCUS.

With a job interview / technical test of the following week in mind, it was hard to keep mind free and clear at all times.

Things really got rough on Friday, when petulance and recklessness got the better of me, and I played with double lot size, raking up 5 losses in a row, that was about -170 pips. 

自暴自弃，报复心态，totally messed up emotionally.

Grade: E

~~

2023W24 Review

-145p, -17.8% capital

70.3% win rate

It appears to be a terrible week. But the fact was, although it couldn't be said as a fine week, I didn't feel as bad as it seemed.

There were wins and there were losses, and there were some trades that shouldn't had been taken. There were two bettings, during the Tuesday and Thursday data releases. 

The first one, should have been a win, because I was aiming for 20p, and the price clearly had moved over 60p in my direction, but when my close initiated manually and executed, the price had swung -35p against me. I would call it technical glitch, or latency, or simply this platform isn't meant for such huge volatility trade.

The second one had less excuse... except it was even less ideal to play such trade on the phone. Big loss, and led to two subsequent reckless and mindless trades, that amounted to -290p or nearly -$1800 loss.

While it's not totally fair to exclude such "mistakes" from the counting because there were real emotions involved, which might well affect live trading anyway, other trades in the week were rewarding enough.

This week I started to pay more attention to if I could get more than a standard 10p target in each trade, and dared to take multiple positions from an entry range, usually with later positions taken from better levels.

Also, I used Fib retracement to help my entry and exit, instead of setting a target purely based on wishes.

A mixed bag week... one or two bad calls and bad decisions, but also consistent reward. 

Grade: C+

~~

2023W23 Review

-18p, -1.6% capital

69% win rate

Sounds like a more realistic but rather frustrating week

Started the week being too cautious, due to the "good result" from last week (good is the enemy of great?). It gave me a strong fear of losing money, to "mess my record". 

Not that I took too early profit, but just feeling "under trade". I overlooked thin S&R lines and only waited for thick ones. It didn't hurt my trade record, but the mentality wasn't completely right.

Was well on Monday and Tuesday, but Wednesday was bad, with 3 full losses that translated into about 12% weekly drawdown in a day. It's again deflating...

That's when the voices and thoughts of "face the fact that losses are part of trading" came. It didn't feel so bad if it wasn't for Alex making huge profits. It felt like I had got so much more to catch up, to learn, which means far away from realizing the goal (of being financially independent).

A few wins after that but it felt really small in comparison.

The main reason the week ended with "only" -18p loss was a >40p win from a limit sell placed since a few days before, opened during my whisky tasting session.

Thoughts of the week: I'm not there yet, still making big losses and lucky wins; I'm still emotional, feeling wanna give up after "the record was messed up"; Those losses weren't bad trades, just part of the performance with my current skillset; I'm not there yet, but I'm not totally lost anymore.

Grade: B

~~

Worry about Risk, the Rewards Will Come... ?

"The primary goal of every trader must be to control and limit risk. If the risk of a trade is properly handled, the rewards will follow. "

-- Winning the Day Trading Game, Thomas L Busby,

Chapter 7 "Worry about Risk, the Rewards Will Come"

When I first read this statement, it sounded like a cliché.

I read it again... there seemed to be more to what it sounded.

I read it again... well, how can you defend your way to success?

Hm... sounds familiar...

In sports, great offence win you a game, great defence win you a title... a great striker win you a game, a great CB win you a season... 

Know what are the risk and what I might lose...

Brazil football team used to be known for their "offence is the greatest defence" philosophy. Even then, it involved risk management, i.e. they knew even if they conceded goals, they could score more to make it up. It's calculated. It's not reckless.

~~

2023W22 Review

The best week in trading life so far.

88% win rate in 25 trades

+176.5 pips

20% equity return

Noticeably, there's no big loss this week. In fact, there wasn't a single trade that triggered the SL.

3 losing trades, but 2 were closed manually and pre-maturely (would have been wins), and 1 was experimenting on playing the data, which turned out to be a very weak movement.

No doubt, there were luck factors. Most price movements were favourable, even though they might have moved into floating losses. Most trades hit TP in reasonably short time (all within one hour).

So what are the takeaways?

• I made some distinctions between S&R lines. Thinner line for near-term S&R, e.g. intraday or within a couple of days; thicker line for medium-term, i.e. tested by several day candles over weeks; thick and dark lines for long-term S&R, i.e. monthly candle or Bollinger Band.
• Trust the process more, trust the bounce and reactions at key levels
• Be more cautious with entry, although not saying I was overly cautious. Luck factor also meant that I didn't miss too many entries that I wanted
• When price gaps up or down, it really GAPS even if the candles are not showing it! Pending orders might be a few pips near current price level, but slippage due to data releases can move the entry by 50 pips.
• Come Friday night, I could really feel the fatigue, after being in the game for a week. Trading does take attention, focus and energy.
• Constantly reminded myself not to let arrogance creep in especially after a handful of wins.
• Still missed a few entries because I wasn't monitoring, and a few of those entries might not have turned out well... Luck factor.

Grade: A

This was the first week that I fulfilled the criteria of returning to trading live again. I need at least 3 more weeks like this!

~~

2023W21 Review

+$29.50

-91.1pips

81.3% win rate

A strange combination of numbers...

As late as Friday afternoon 3:30pm, the drawdown was more than 15% of the week opening capital. It was deflating and shitty feeling.

There were emotional trades, price chasing, but the biggest failure was still the inability to identify an opposite one-way train.

Managed to save the week into positive with the subsequent 9 positive trades, some with double lot size. In a way, it's a plus in trade/lot management

Grade: C+

~~

2023W20 Review

It's a week that I lost just over $500 (on demo account), that's about -10%. But still I don't think it's a terrible week... except the last handful of trades

All was quite well, with some small gains and rather big losses, perhaps the expected return with this high hit rate and low return strategy.

Emotion... is still biggest thing, even on a demo account. 

When I was on winning streak of 2, 3, or 4, I was able to stay rational, be patient, stick to the plan, wait for opportunities to show themselves instead of keep looking for one, no FOMO even when price ran away.

But when winning streak got longer, like 4, 5, 6, then complacence and arrogance started to creep in. 轻浮，浮夸，不严谨。

The worst thing, however, was after one or two losses... then I tend to become aggressive, go on offensive and try to regain lost capital,  start to tweak my game plan, which may not be a good thing for an inexperienced trader.

In terms of market movement, biggest killer was still one-way train movement.

I trade on "reactions" and "rebounds", 10p can be obtained, even on a one-way train. But one-way train has another voodoo... which is speed. 10p may be hit in a few seconds, or 1 min, and that is very exciting, tempting me to catch more small profits.... then inevitably, will get trapped before too long.

Grade: B

~~

Emotions!

"Whether you believe it or not, it is a fact. Many traders psychologically sabotage their trading and they do not even know it. They are not prepared for the flood of emotions that sweep over them when they are trading and, therefore, they are unable to deal with them. 

When the bank account balance is on the line, you will experience greed, fear, and denial. You will react in ways that you did not anticipate and, at least part of the time, you will take irrational and self-destructive action. In order to succeed as a trader you must prepare for the worst, just as a jet pilot must prepare for an engine failure. You must recognize the emotions that you will experience when you are in both winning trades and losing trades and you must be prepared to deal effectively with them. Design specific strategies for the market’s movements and be ready to execute those strategies when your emotions get fired up. If you do not recognize the power of emotions in trading and if you do not prepare yourself to effectively deal with them, you will fail. 

Do not destroy your next trade by worrying about and reliving your last one. If you plan to be a long-term player, there will be hundreds and maybe thousands of other trades."

-- Winning the Day Trading Game, Thomas L Busby,
Chapter 5 "There's No Crying in Trading"

~~

Be a Good Loser

"As weird as it sounds, learning how to lose is really learning how to win because we will all be losers at one time or another. You must know how to deal with losses so that they do not defeat you. Winning  traders put their bad days in perspective and keep on plugging away. They do not ignore their mistakes; they learn from them and get better and stronger."

"To be a winner you must learn from your losses and eliminate mistakes you have control over."

-- Winning the Day Trading Game, Thomas L Busby,
Chapter 5 "There's No Crying in Trading"

~~

2023W19 Review

The first week in a long while that I'm fully on a demo account

My strategy is to trade for bounces at key levels, and aim for small tp, typically 10p, or occasionally 20p or a bit more if it's in active US sessions.

After one week, it seems quite workable. While it's not a blanket statement (e.g., if it's a a big move that will easily cover a range of 150p or 200p in 15 minutes), prices tend to react at key levels.

So, provided if there's no FOMO, and wait patiently for entries close to key levels, aiming for 10p of reaction bounces while risking 30 to 60p is usually viable.

Anyway, it's still a negative week, owing in large to the two trades that resulted in -90p. By the way, that's a 200p move in 20 minutes... exactly the kind of move to beware of.

Don't overtrade

Don't chase the action

Be patient

Grade: B

~~

The sinking feeling when averaging downs go south

Some familiar feelings when the market goes firmly in the opposite direction.

This method of trading is known as averaging down and, believe it or not, it is a method used by thousands of traders. In fact, it is a strategy that I used for years. 

I remember the last day that I used it. I was trading the S&P Futures. At that time I always placed my orders in thirds. I bought the first third of my contracts. The market immediately moved against me and I was losing money. Fear reared its ugly head but I refused to acknowledge it. I responded by buying another third of my position. The market continued to fall and I continued to lose. It was getting harder and harder to stay calm and keep panic from sabotaging my strategy. My palms were wet with sweat, but I stuck to my plan and I arrogantly bought my final third. My losses kept getting greater and greater. I was getting sick.

On this particular day, the bears were clearly in charge and the market continued to fall relentlessly. My losses were increasing every second, but I just held on and waited for the reversal that I was sure was coming. I would not give in to fear and I would stick to my original plan, no matter what. After all, I was a professional and I knew how to analyze the market, right? I just needed to give the market time and it would validate me. Just hold the position and wait. This was no longer a trade, this was a war. 

I waited for the market to shift and turn my way. I stared at the profit and loss box on the trading dome for what seemed like an eternity and I watched my losses increase as I sweated and my stomach flipped. My original arrogance gave way to fear and panic. I had not considered being wrong and I had no plan for dealing with the fear I was experiencing. I was immobilized. I felt like a pedestrian standing on a street corner watching an automobile headed straight for me, but I could not move to get out of the way. I was a sitting duck.

On that day, the market did not reverse and eventually my losses were so huge that the truth hit me and hit me hard. I could not deny it any longer. I was wrong! I had been a bull in a bear market and I could not buy my way out of my error. By adding to a losing position, I had only increased my losses and dug myself into a deeper hole. Those are the days you want to forget.

-- Winning the Day Trading Game, Thomas L Busby, pg 66 

~~

2023W18 Review

Desperation

Petulance

Vengeance

Demotivation

These were among the emotions that drove me this week

No surprise, it's a devastating week, where I lost over 200p, $100, or about 30%

The only surprise was I still have my account

But with just over $100 remaining, it's as good as busted

The 20p challenge didn't work for me, at least not in this state of mind

Was too desperate to prove something

After taking a few days of break, I've reverted to trading demo again

Turned out to be rather positive performance, with less emotional stress and fear

So... how do I know I'm ready for live trading again?

1. When I'm profitable with at least +80p weekly gain for 4 out of 6 profitable weeks
2. When I'm getting Grade B for 4 out of 6 weeks of at least Grade C
3. When I can declare that I'm on top of my emotions while trading a demo account

The last one isn't scientifically measurable, but let's start like this...

Grade: E

~~

Three Most Destructive Emotional Forces in Trading

1. Greed
2. Fear
3. Arrogance

~~

2023W17 Review

A -23% week...

All rules went out of the window

Desperate and revenge trades

It's taking a toll on my emotional well-being

To take the 20p challenge?

The idea is good... an I aim 10p at a time... but the problem is with the SL

100p SL? 30p SL?

Maybe I should go back to "square one"... with 100p SL, 1:10 play

Grade: D

~~

2023W16 Review

Bad week, -119p, with a win rate of 69%

Several times of closing trades too soon due to fear of losing, ended up leaving money on the table.

However, also at least 3 trades that were profitable because I closed early enough, otherwise would have been losses.

Big individual losses are still the culprits, twice hitting SL of over -100p, twice more over -30p.

One -155p here:

It came right after a salvaged trade which saw a floating -100p became a +20p profit, took 7.5 hrs from 1pm to 8:30pm. I had the feeling that after dropping over 100p from the day high, it's a good time to buy. 

It wasn't.

There were also several false hopes along the way, with long pinbars hinting that a bullish reversal might be on the card. It's a bad situation, but it'll be too harsh to say it's a bad trade.

Another -133p here:

Bought at a key level of $2000, with a stop loss that covers the next key level of $1990. Turned out the support was as low as $1980 instead.

In hindsight, even a 200p SL that covers both key levels wouldn't have been sufficient to turn a profit.

Another bad situation.

One lesson learnt:

There might be opportunities to recover losses after a big losing trade, but it's important to keep emotions in check while doing a recovery.

Grade: C

~~

The Four Fears in Trading

1. Being wrong
2. Losing money
3. Missing out
4. Leaving money on the table

~~

2023W15 Review

+26.2p in 24 trades

Had it not for that trade that won 99.9p, this would have been another bad week.

Then there are these two trades... 

I shorted near a support level, things were fine until price suddenly dropped aggressively.

FEAR of losing money caused me to cut my loss, and then FEAR of missing out made me chased the price. What might have been a +30 turned out to be a -87.

Trade #1 below was profitable, but was rather lucky to be profitable in short time? Shorted at a key number level of 2000 and took a profit of 18p. Had I aimed for more, might miss it and need to hold for much longer time.

Trade #2, SL was only 13p above a key level of 2005. An easy target for stop hunting. Should have had higher margin above 2005, and it would have been at least a breakeven trade, or a profitable one if I had the gut.

Trade #3, was trading a 3-line strike, but it's not strictly a qualified pattern because the bullish engulfing covered just under 50%. Seemed unlucky to have missed by pips, but it shouldn't have been a trade if I was cautious.

Trade #4 was influenced by Alex, who reminded me that a long was possible on the verge of data release. What a bull!

The next trade was telegram-called.

Trade 5, 6, 7 were plays after data release, capitalising a day support of 2005. Trust the range?

Then, there were a few "mistakes"... including one that clicked on the wrong direction, curious SL that's not big enough... 

Overall, not a terrible trading week because at least I could feel in touch with the market.

I practised more cautions, gave more patience, but still had moments of FOMO.

I was too cautious in setting TPs in some trades, especially US sessions.

55% win rate wasn't bad, but wins were small, and losses were big. Same old problem.

What could have made this week better?

• wait for retest and confirmation
• aim for bigger TP at US sessions

Grade? B-

~~

2023-04-12 Stop Losses, Stop Hunting, S&R

~~

2023-04-11 Trading Rules (XAUUSD)

DRAFT: 2023-04-11

Trade Planning (Beginning of trading day)

• Mark major supports & resistances from D1, H4 charts
• Check Bollinger Band upper, lower and mid-bands
• Check data release hours
• Check D1 ATR11
• Mark opening price
• Mark daily S&R around noon using m5 chart, at least 3 key levels on each side

Trade Entry (Assessing trade opportunities)

• How much price has moved in a direction
• Avoid entry if price in awkward positions between or before key numbers ($5, $10, previous peaks)
• Avoid entry if it's within 30 min of key data
• SL covering key numbers and next key level
• Any 3-line strike pattern will be a bonus
• Q: Is this a FOMO trade? Yes --> stop
• Q: Is this a revenge trade? Yes --> stop
• Q: Is the TP reasonable or is it influenced by previous trade(s)? 

Trade Management (Trades in hand)

• If positive
• Is the TP still achievable? Yes --> maintain
• Any sign of change in momentum? Yes --> consider adjust TP, or take profit
• What might be the impact of the next key hours?
• If negative
• Any sign of pattern change, from range to trend or vice versa? Higher tf MA crossover? Obvious break of S&R?
• Yes
• Any opportunity for defense trade?
• Cut loss?
• No
• Any chance to add position?
• Stick to the plan?
• What might be the impact of the next key hours?
• Reentry:
• Price retesting S&R level, could be reversal, or confirmation

~~

2023-04-10 Lessons on Fear

Red line = 1986, a support level I drew earlier in the day.

Missed the entry when it first tested the level.

Entered at the 2nd test, it went up before it came back down to my entry again, and I quit.

FEAR of losing money.

But it seemed to confirm the support, so I went in again, this time I made about 20p, before the price tested the support yet again.

Believing in the range and support, I bought again. It was consolidating fine, until price suddenly dropped very quickly, putting me in over -50p of floating loss. I closed the trade.

FEAR of losing money.

Then I thought the price will accelerate its fall, so I sold it at the middle of the candle, only for it to quickly pull back up, giving me a -30p realised loss.

FEAR of missing out.

Instead of 2 steady winning trades of roughly 40 to 50p, I ended up with 2 losses and 1 win, a net of about -60p.

Trades of recent couple of weeks have been heavily influenced by fear, ever since those big losses that knock my account from 800 to less than 600. Too cautious when letting profit run, too anxious to close a trade in breakeven, and of course, the trending market caught me by surprise. I was still using the techniques of range play, which I'm more familiar with.

Is it all about confidence? The fear of seeing the bottom of the barrel? The fear about my current financial stress?

I'm going to re-draft my trading rules and plans.

~~