20110616 - Trade Plans

GBPUSD











Bullish Bat pattern, however entry is placed just above 100% instead of at 88.6%, otherwise the SL will present too large a risk to cover the next support.

Entry 1.6076
SL 1.6031
TP1 1.6230
Trading Buddy Scale 8


NZDJPY











Bullish Butterfly pattern, coincides with 2 more Fibonacci levels. Entry placed at 127% retracement.
Entry 64.25
SL 63.90
TP1 64.90
Trading Buddy Scale 8


NZDUSD











Another Bullish Butterfly pattern.
Entry 0.7990
SL 0.7945
TP1 0.8060
Trading Buddy Scale 6

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20110602 - EURJPY Trade

This is a 8-pointer on Trading Buddy Scale.

Bullish Bat overlap with a larger Bullish Gartley.

1.618AB=CD overlap with larger 1.13AB=CD.

RSI Divergence.

Kumo bottom as support on the daily chart, also pivots for several Chikou turns.

Placed entry at 114.80, SL rather large at 114.20 (just enough, maybe too marginal, to cover 88.6% for a larger Bullish Bat). TP 115.70 for a risk:reward of 1:1.5.

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20110602 - EURAUD Trade

Bearish divergence formed on 4H Chart. Entry price also 161.8% projection from previous low, on 25 May. SL about 30pips. First target 1.3455, 61.8% retracement of current run. Next target can be 1.3432, 38.2% of bigger rally.

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20110503 - GBPUSD Trade

Bullish Butterfly formed on 1H chart, PRZ converges around 1.6590. Making day shadow around 60pips, though it's so early in the morning to confirm it say day shadow.

Entered short at 1.6588, SL 1.6538 (50pips), 4H chart just below EMA50. Target 1.6670 (61.8% retracement of CD).

Another risk is, it could be a bigger bullish bat, which will be completed at around 1.6527.

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20110407 - USDCAD Trade Plan

Bullish butterfly formed, with PRZ around 0.9582 and 0.9573. Candle tested PRZ and pulling back (not completed). Placed a buy order at 0.9578, with SL 0.9533, which is just under 141% retracement of the pattern.

As USDCAD is in long term bearish run, TP is set at 38.2% retracement of CD at 0.9655.

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20110406 - EURUSD Trade

Bearish butterfly formed, with PRZ 1.4296, 1.4302, 1.4307. Price momentum slowed at PRZ. Direct short as price was turning down from PRZ. Day shadow 97pips, actually abit longer than usual. SL was a challenge because there's no clear resistance on top. Put at 1.4320, which is slightly higher than 141% retracement. TP 1.4345, around 61.8% of CD.

SL triggered after 4h10m. Always a challenge to set SL when there's visible no resistance (based on Ichimoku or EMAs) on top. Actually a warning sign was when price retraced 38.2% and resume run, a sign of continuation! Should take note.

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20110331 - EURUSD

Overlap of Bearish Gartley and smaller Bearish Butterfly. PRZ Between 1.4169 to 1.4183.

Entry at 1.4183, also fulfilled day shadow ~60pips.

SL 1.4223, just above X

TP 1.4100, 61.8% retracement of current run.

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20110331 - GBPUSD Plan

Bearish Bat formed, with Potential Reversal Zone between 1.6105 to 1.6130.

Alternate Bearish Bat limit is at 1.6166.

Plan entry at 1.6142 to short on Bearish Bat, also day shadow ~74pips.

SL 40pips at 1.6182.

TP is 61.8% retracement of run, at 1.6020.

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20110330 - GBPUSD Bearish Butterfly

Trading Buddy,

Here you go:

Bearish butterfly formed on 30m chart, rather ideally. PRZ 1.6052, 1.6058, 1.6068. When see the chart, PRZ already tested, and price had retraced to slightly below 1.6052. PRZ also coincide with day shadow (74pips). Placed entry at 1.6060, got matched. TP 1.6016 (61.8% retracement of CD). SL 1.6085, which is slightly above day high.

Moved SL to 1.6059 after having 30pips floating profit. Hit target and closed position.

Not big, but hope can find consistency :)

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EURUSD#14 - Weekly Homework

Euro dropped last week, but wasn't a very huge drop. It's enough to form a black candle engulfing the previous week's body though.

On the weekly chart, price failed to break above EMA50, also means Chikou couldn't break above Kijun. Price was being supported by Kijun around 1.3185, which will continue to be the immediate support. Another stronger support observed on the weekly chart is still 1.3000. As for resistance, EMA50 (currently at 1.3420) is the immediate resistance, followed by EMA200 & Kumo flat around 1.3350. Basically, support resistance levels are similar to those mentioned last week, only the sentiment turned to be even slightly (not too much) more bearish.

On the daily chart, EMA200 successfully bounced price off it, and out of the Kumo, a sign of bearishness. Price is now moving in a flag / channel. It won't be surprise if price might rebound to as high as 1.3380 again, or even 1.3480 (EMA50, Kumo flat bottom). However, 1.3550 will be a strong resistance. Daily Tenkan (around 1.3185) proven to be a support, which coincides Chikou's attempt to pierce through the thin Kumo. For the time being, Chikou has rebounded after touching the bottom of the thin Kumo. Once broken 1.3183, a strong bear run might continue, though 1.3000 will be another support

On the 4-hourly Chart, 1.3185 is the immediate support, successfully supported the price last week. However, with a bullish cloud ahead, it might be a decision time, to break above 1.3300 and aim for 1.3550, or go below 1.3185 and test 1.3000.

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EURUSD#13 - Weekly Homework

Euro formed a nice long hammer pattern on weekly chart last week. Though the huge black candle 2 weeks ago, thick Kumo managed to pull price back into the cloud again. That coincides with FB80 retracement for a run from 10 Sep to 4 Nov 2010.

A few resistances on the monthly chart:
1. Kijun & EMA50 - around 1.3550
2. Chikou has hit price action, will it break above it?
3. EMA50 for Chikou - around 1.3460
Support only around 1.3000

Resistances on the weekly chart:
1. Kijun for Chikou & EMA50 for price - around 1.3430
2. Kumo top - around 1.3550, also EMA50 for Chikou
3. Kumo bottom for Chikou - around 1.3800
No clear support other than 1.3000, which is also around Kumo bottom.

On the daily chart, price as break above EMA200 and into the Kumo. However, Friday's high is still inside a channel formed by the lower-highs and lower-lows since 4 Nov. It's still unclear whether it will break out from the channel, or being rejected by the Kumo and stay inside.
A few resistances:
1. EMA50 for both price and Chikou - around 1.3520
2. Kijun, also Chikou pivots - around 1.3625, also FB50 for recent downtrend
3. Kumo top - around 1.3830, also Kijun for Chikou
Supports:
1. EMA200 for Chikou - around 1.3320 to 1.3380
2. Kumo for Chikou - around 1.3180

4-hour chart, Chikou has break above price AND Kijun, showing some strength. Price action had also broken up into the cloud. If price manages to go above 1.3450 early Monday, then resistances are:
1. EMA200 - around 1.3520, near 1.3550 strong resistance
2. Kumo resistance for Chikou
Supports:
1. Kijun and Price action for Chikou

Could be a tricky week to trade. Long term trend still bearish, but if break above 1.3550, might go up further to 1.3830, a short term bull run. Bear run will continue once 1.3000 support is broken.

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EURUSD#12 - Weekly Homework

EURUSD didn't go up as I thought, in fact it was almost all the way down, triggered by the tension at Korean Peninsula and Ireland debt crisis.

Last week's low 1.3198 was around FBR67 from September, so 1.3180 will be the immediate support for now.

On Ichi indicators, monthly, weekly and daily charts have all shown bearish signals.

On the 4-hourly chart, 1.3050 to 1.3080 might be the next support (chikou support), and then at 1.3000, which might also be a psychological support level.

There are some room for upward movement, with resistance at 1.3380 to 1.3400 (Daily Kumo bottom). Next resistance is 1.3480, if this resistance is breached then it might signals a short term bull trend that might hit 1.3750, with a few more resistances along the way (1.3550, 1.3630).

In a nutshell:

R3 1. 3550 (Daily Chikou support)
R2 1.3480 (Daily Chikou support)
R1 1.3380 to 1.3400 (Daily Kumo bottom)

S1 1.3180 (FBR67)
S2 1.3050 to 1.3080 (Chikou support)
S3 1.3000 (Chikou support)

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EURUSD#11 Weekly Homework

After about 3 weeks of this and that travels, I am back and should pay more attention to the currency pairs again.

This might be an eventful week for Euro. With many important announcements to come, and also it's time to decide the monthly candle formation.

This month's candle formation is shaped by:

1. trend continuation from last month, but resistance found when Chikou bounced back by Kijun in the monthly chart.
2. down trend ever since.
3. slight rebound when supported by cloud in daily chart, and EMA200 and EMA50 in weekly chart.

My guess is Euro will be bullish for a couple of days, with immediate resistance at 1.3730 (4-hourly EMA200) to 1.3750 (4-hourly Chikou support). Another strong resistance is around 1.3865 (fbr 50 of recent downtrend. The pair might linger at that level if it does reach it.

However, if there's too much weakness for it to go up, immediate support at 1.3550 to 1.3590 (4-hourly Kijun). The next support, which might not be strong, at 1.3480, and another stronger one at 1.3381.

In a nutshell:

R3: 1.3910
R2: 1.3865 (fbr 50)
R1: 1.3730 (4-hourly EMA200) to 1.3750 (4-hourly Chikou support)

S1: 1.3550 to 1.3590 (4-hourly Kijun)
S2: 1.3480 (Chikou support)
S3: 1.3380 (daily EMA200, bottom of the cloud)


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EURUSD#10 - Week Homework

Also a spinning top on weekly chart, which saw Chikou being rejected by EMA50 and Kijun after a bullish midweek run.

On the daily chart, price action had been steep for more than a month already. As wave target price was fulfilled, there's a high possibility of correction. 1.4185 might be a critical level, breaking which might mean continuation of bull run to the next resistance, in the region of 1.4485.

In a nutshell:
R3: 1.4485
R2: 1.4185
R1: 1.4055 (FB67, level wave target)

S1: 1.3910 to 1.3945 (Chikou support line)
S2: 1.3790 to 1.3840
S3: 1.3630 to 1.3660 (Chikou support line)


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GBPUSD#17 - Weekly Homework

Yes, it did come down. But no, it didn't end the week as a black candle.

On the weekly chart, price action has broken above the previous high set back in August, but it actually didn't close above the previous high. The week ended with a spinning top. Still rather unsure! Chikou broke above EMA50, attempted to breach the cloud but failed. Take FB retracement from August 2009 and November 2009, two major resistances at FB67, which are 1.6110 and 1.6010, respectively.

On the daily chart, though a bearish antenna was formed, it's not wise to short this pair too aggressively to be safe, as Ichimoku indicators haven't give signals of weakness. Adventurous play though, can be to short it from 1.6065, with SL covering at least 1.6110.

4-hourly chart, also still bullish signals at least for the time being. However, with thin cloud ahead, a reversal can be rather sharp if it does happen.

In a nutshell:
R3: 1.6350 (FB80)
R2: 1.6110 to 1.6143 (FB67 and Chikou support)
R1: 1.6065

S1: 1.5945 (Chikou support)
S2: 1.5800 to 1.5830 (previous resistance turned support)
S3: 1.5570

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Moving Stop Loss

I came up with an entry plan.
I came up with a stop loss.
I came up with a target price.

My entry was matched.
My target price was hit at the end of the day.

I lost money.

Why??
I was too kiasu that I moved my SL to a tighter margin too early, a SL that's lower than the initial plan, but not a level that will make me break even.

Lesson learnt? Don't move your SL unless it's to break even level (protect profit), or to put a trailing stop. What good it has to change a SL from 50pips to 30pips? If I could afford 50pips, why reduce? If I think 50pips was a reasonable margin, why change?

It reads, fear.

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EURUSD#9 - Weekly Homework

Gotta give more focus on Euro from now on.

Euro has been bullish for some time now. As Mentor pointed out, it will at least test the flat kumo bottom on the monthly chart. Now it doesn't only test, but actually break into the cloud. Tenkan-Kijun is till in bullish pattern on the monthly chart, but this doesn't give much meaning to short term intraday trades.

On the weekly chart, however, Tenkan-Kijun shows bullish sentiment, albeit is arguably a weak one (crossed below the cloud).

On the daily chart, the price action has gone to far above the cloud. This is when PW comes into play to determine wave targets.

In a nutshell:
R3: 1.4180
R2: 1.4030 to 1.4050 (Last week's high, fb66 retracement, level wave targets)
R1: 1.3945 (Chikou support line on weekly chart)

S1: 1.3790 to 1.3840 (last week's support range in smaller time frame
S2: 1.3630 to 1.3660 (last week's low, Chikou support line)
S3: 1.3330 to 1.3380 (current bull run's 50% retracement)

Personally I don't t expect it to go too much above 1.4050 resistance before it comes down to the range of 1.3330 to 1.3380. However, if it 1.4180 is broken, next target might be 1.4485.

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GBPUSD#16 - Weekly Homework

[Weekly Chart]

A doji was formed last week, also saw Chikou failed to break above flat Kijun. It also closed just below fb80 from August's high. Probably a sign of another XAB is formed. Generally, weekly sentiment is a little unsure.



[Daily Chart]

As Trading Buddy pointed out, no candle manage to close above 1.5833 level (week Flat Kijun). Those long candle shadows indicate uncertainty and tug-of-war between the bull and the bear, with bear appear to be slightly stronger for now. However, the last candle was a bullish engulfing.


[4-hourly Chart]
Just to further zoom in to see the uncertain trend. Even Tenkan is overlapping right on the Kijun now.

In a nutshell:
Uncertain trend, with many supports and resistances to watch out for. Sentiment is more bearish-inclined until the previous high (1.5997) is broken.

R2 - 1.5997 (previous high)
R1 - 1.5920 to 1.5945 (last week's high, previous Chikou support)

C - 1.5800 to 1.5833 (4H Chikou support and Weekly Kijun flat)

S1 - 1.5665 (last week's low0
S2 - 1.5570

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GBPUSD#15 - Weekly Homework

Weekly chart has seen candle come out of the cloud. It seems retracement is not yet complete for a bullish motive wave from end of May to the beginning of August. Weekly candle closed slightly below FB33 retracement and back into the downward channel again, might go down further to test FB50 retracement (1.5115) which coincides with Kijun-sen, or the bottom of the cloud on the daily chart (1.5170).

Currently price is in a range between 4-hourly EMA200 and a support range between 1.5290 and 1.5350.

R2 - 1.5520 (previous support-turn-resistance)
R1 - 1.5460 (4-hourly Kumo Top) or 4-hourly EMA200

S1 - range between 1.5290 and 1.5350
S2 - range between 1.5170 (daily kumo bottom) and 1.5115 (fb50 retracement)


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GBPUSD#14 - Weekly Homework

[Monthly Chart]
Last month finished forming a dark cloud. This month, after over 3 trading days, looking to be forming the top shadow of a black candle? Too early to say anyway.


[Weekly Chart]
It has been 3 consecutive weeks of rather small range, and small body. though it's been making a slow down trend, short bodies might signifies uncertainties. Anyway, it's broken below EMA50, being supported by Kumo Bottom.


[Daily Chart]
Price has been moving in a bearish channel. However, a bullish cloud is immediately ahead. Price might enter Kumo and bounce up.


[4-hourly Chart]
EMA50 continues to be the trend definition since August.

In a nutshell:
R2 - 1.5576 (previous week high)
R1 - 1.5520 (previous support turned resistance)

S1 - 1.5325 - 1.5340 (previous week low)
S2 - 1.5170 (daily chart kumo bottom)

EMA200 and EMA50 are always helpful indicators of support and resistance too.

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