20110406 - EURUSD Trade

Bearish butterfly formed, with PRZ 1.4296, 1.4302, 1.4307. Price momentum slowed at PRZ. Direct short as price was turning down from PRZ. Day shadow 97pips, actually abit longer than usual. SL was a challenge because there's no clear resistance on top. Put at 1.4320, which is slightly higher than 141% retracement. TP 1.4345, around 61.8% of CD.

SL triggered after 4h10m. Always a challenge to set SL when there's visible no resistance (based on Ichimoku or EMAs) on top. Actually a warning sign was when price retraced 38.2% and resume run, a sign of continuation! Should take note.

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20110331 - EURUSD

Overlap of Bearish Gartley and smaller Bearish Butterfly. PRZ Between 1.4169 to 1.4183.

Entry at 1.4183, also fulfilled day shadow ~60pips.

SL 1.4223, just above X

TP 1.4100, 61.8% retracement of current run.

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EURUSD#14 - Weekly Homework

Euro dropped last week, but wasn't a very huge drop. It's enough to form a black candle engulfing the previous week's body though.

On the weekly chart, price failed to break above EMA50, also means Chikou couldn't break above Kijun. Price was being supported by Kijun around 1.3185, which will continue to be the immediate support. Another stronger support observed on the weekly chart is still 1.3000. As for resistance, EMA50 (currently at 1.3420) is the immediate resistance, followed by EMA200 & Kumo flat around 1.3350. Basically, support resistance levels are similar to those mentioned last week, only the sentiment turned to be even slightly (not too much) more bearish.

On the daily chart, EMA200 successfully bounced price off it, and out of the Kumo, a sign of bearishness. Price is now moving in a flag / channel. It won't be surprise if price might rebound to as high as 1.3380 again, or even 1.3480 (EMA50, Kumo flat bottom). However, 1.3550 will be a strong resistance. Daily Tenkan (around 1.3185) proven to be a support, which coincides Chikou's attempt to pierce through the thin Kumo. For the time being, Chikou has rebounded after touching the bottom of the thin Kumo. Once broken 1.3183, a strong bear run might continue, though 1.3000 will be another support

On the 4-hourly Chart, 1.3185 is the immediate support, successfully supported the price last week. However, with a bullish cloud ahead, it might be a decision time, to break above 1.3300 and aim for 1.3550, or go below 1.3185 and test 1.3000.

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EURUSD#13 - Weekly Homework

Euro formed a nice long hammer pattern on weekly chart last week. Though the huge black candle 2 weeks ago, thick Kumo managed to pull price back into the cloud again. That coincides with FB80 retracement for a run from 10 Sep to 4 Nov 2010.

A few resistances on the monthly chart:
1. Kijun & EMA50 - around 1.3550
2. Chikou has hit price action, will it break above it?
3. EMA50 for Chikou - around 1.3460
Support only around 1.3000

Resistances on the weekly chart:
1. Kijun for Chikou & EMA50 for price - around 1.3430
2. Kumo top - around 1.3550, also EMA50 for Chikou
3. Kumo bottom for Chikou - around 1.3800
No clear support other than 1.3000, which is also around Kumo bottom.

On the daily chart, price as break above EMA200 and into the Kumo. However, Friday's high is still inside a channel formed by the lower-highs and lower-lows since 4 Nov. It's still unclear whether it will break out from the channel, or being rejected by the Kumo and stay inside.
A few resistances:
1. EMA50 for both price and Chikou - around 1.3520
2. Kijun, also Chikou pivots - around 1.3625, also FB50 for recent downtrend
3. Kumo top - around 1.3830, also Kijun for Chikou
Supports:
1. EMA200 for Chikou - around 1.3320 to 1.3380
2. Kumo for Chikou - around 1.3180

4-hour chart, Chikou has break above price AND Kijun, showing some strength. Price action had also broken up into the cloud. If price manages to go above 1.3450 early Monday, then resistances are:
1. EMA200 - around 1.3520, near 1.3550 strong resistance
2. Kumo resistance for Chikou
Supports:
1. Kijun and Price action for Chikou

Could be a tricky week to trade. Long term trend still bearish, but if break above 1.3550, might go up further to 1.3830, a short term bull run. Bear run will continue once 1.3000 support is broken.

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EURUSD#12 - Weekly Homework

EURUSD didn't go up as I thought, in fact it was almost all the way down, triggered by the tension at Korean Peninsula and Ireland debt crisis.

Last week's low 1.3198 was around FBR67 from September, so 1.3180 will be the immediate support for now.

On Ichi indicators, monthly, weekly and daily charts have all shown bearish signals.

On the 4-hourly chart, 1.3050 to 1.3080 might be the next support (chikou support), and then at 1.3000, which might also be a psychological support level.

There are some room for upward movement, with resistance at 1.3380 to 1.3400 (Daily Kumo bottom). Next resistance is 1.3480, if this resistance is breached then it might signals a short term bull trend that might hit 1.3750, with a few more resistances along the way (1.3550, 1.3630).

In a nutshell:

R3 1. 3550 (Daily Chikou support)
R2 1.3480 (Daily Chikou support)
R1 1.3380 to 1.3400 (Daily Kumo bottom)

S1 1.3180 (FBR67)
S2 1.3050 to 1.3080 (Chikou support)
S3 1.3000 (Chikou support)

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EURUSD#11 Weekly Homework

After about 3 weeks of this and that travels, I am back and should pay more attention to the currency pairs again.

This might be an eventful week for Euro. With many important announcements to come, and also it's time to decide the monthly candle formation.

This month's candle formation is shaped by:

1. trend continuation from last month, but resistance found when Chikou bounced back by Kijun in the monthly chart.
2. down trend ever since.
3. slight rebound when supported by cloud in daily chart, and EMA200 and EMA50 in weekly chart.

My guess is Euro will be bullish for a couple of days, with immediate resistance at 1.3730 (4-hourly EMA200) to 1.3750 (4-hourly Chikou support). Another strong resistance is around 1.3865 (fbr 50 of recent downtrend. The pair might linger at that level if it does reach it.

However, if there's too much weakness for it to go up, immediate support at 1.3550 to 1.3590 (4-hourly Kijun). The next support, which might not be strong, at 1.3480, and another stronger one at 1.3381.

In a nutshell:

R3: 1.3910
R2: 1.3865 (fbr 50)
R1: 1.3730 (4-hourly EMA200) to 1.3750 (4-hourly Chikou support)

S1: 1.3550 to 1.3590 (4-hourly Kijun)
S2: 1.3480 (Chikou support)
S3: 1.3380 (daily EMA200, bottom of the cloud)


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EURUSD#10 - Week Homework

Also a spinning top on weekly chart, which saw Chikou being rejected by EMA50 and Kijun after a bullish midweek run.

On the daily chart, price action had been steep for more than a month already. As wave target price was fulfilled, there's a high possibility of correction. 1.4185 might be a critical level, breaking which might mean continuation of bull run to the next resistance, in the region of 1.4485.

In a nutshell:
R3: 1.4485
R2: 1.4185
R1: 1.4055 (FB67, level wave target)

S1: 1.3910 to 1.3945 (Chikou support line)
S2: 1.3790 to 1.3840
S3: 1.3630 to 1.3660 (Chikou support line)


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EURUSD#9 - Weekly Homework

Gotta give more focus on Euro from now on.

Euro has been bullish for some time now. As Mentor pointed out, it will at least test the flat kumo bottom on the monthly chart. Now it doesn't only test, but actually break into the cloud. Tenkan-Kijun is till in bullish pattern on the monthly chart, but this doesn't give much meaning to short term intraday trades.

On the weekly chart, however, Tenkan-Kijun shows bullish sentiment, albeit is arguably a weak one (crossed below the cloud).

On the daily chart, the price action has gone to far above the cloud. This is when PW comes into play to determine wave targets.

In a nutshell:
R3: 1.4180
R2: 1.4030 to 1.4050 (Last week's high, fb66 retracement, level wave targets)
R1: 1.3945 (Chikou support line on weekly chart)

S1: 1.3790 to 1.3840 (last week's support range in smaller time frame
S2: 1.3630 to 1.3660 (last week's low, Chikou support line)
S3: 1.3330 to 1.3380 (current bull run's 50% retracement)

Personally I don't t expect it to go too much above 1.4050 resistance before it comes down to the range of 1.3330 to 1.3380. However, if it 1.4180 is broken, next target might be 1.4485.

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EURUSD#8 - Weekly Homework

[30m Chart]
If I were to trade early movement, short at 1.2915 to 1.2929, SL 40 to 50 pips, first target around 1.2835. Second target around 1.2795. SL should be able to cover previous high of 1.2964.


[Daily Chart]

From what I can see TODAY:
S1 ~ 1.2835
S2 ~ 1.2795
S3 ~ 1.2735, then 1.2690
R1 ~ 1.2965
R2 ~ 1.3025
R3 ~ 1.3090

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EURUSD#7 Weekly Homework

Last week EURUSD had retraced up beyond fb33 level, but just below fb50. For bigger trend, expect it to touch fb50 anyway.

In a daily chart, the flat top of the cloud can be a strong resistance against an uptrend. Can look out for short opportunities at 1.28 region. However, if price closed above the flat top, bullish trend will continue to 1.31 (fb67), even 1.33 (fb80). When price ever hit 1.33, a reversal might soon take place.

For shorter term play, first to watch out for short at 1.2690, SL 30 - 40 pips, TP 1.2480.
Long position can be at EMA200 of 4H chart, around 1.2460, or trendline at 1.2400.

p/s: Trading buddy, finally ripple got update, thanks for constant encouragement, haha. Had one winning and one losing trade in the past week, there's a big room for improvement.


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EURUSD#6 - Weekly Homework

[Monthly Chart]

EMA200 is being good support in the monthly chart. 3 more trading days before July, so far it is a hammer pattern. How will it close this month?

I attended the TA Weekly Meeting at IIC for the first time. There I learned to mark Support & Resistance using current and previous month's highs and lows. There are 3 lines for reference now, 1.2466, 1.2142 and 1.1875.


[Daily Chart]

On a daily chart, Big Blue C2 is being labeled tentatively, which is about fb33 retracement. However, the bullish sentiment from last week might sustain and continue to move up and break 1.2466 (C2). Reasons to call it bullish:

1. Price closed above flat Kijun for 3 days already, Kijun might be a good support for now
2. Tenkan-Kijun cross in daily chart
3. Price above the cloud on the 4H chart, and the cloud seems to be thick enough as a good support for going up for a while


[4-hourly Chart]


[Hourly Chart]

There are several resistances to consider:

1. EMA200 on 4H chart, about 1.2400
2. Last week's high, about 1.2466, where a double top is to be formed
3. fb33 retracement of Big Blue C1, about 1.2480

If all these resistances were breached, uptrend is confirmed, then the immediate WTP is 1.2611, which is 2x A, about the bottom of the cloud on the daily chart. However, a strong bull might run up to 1.2785 region, which is 3x A, fb50 retracement of the Big Blue C1, Chikou meets Kijun and the flat top of the cloud on the daily chart.

If the resistances cannot be broken, then price might fall back to about 1.2272, which is about the flat Kijun on the daily chart, stay inside the cloud on a 4H chart, and a downtrend might happen after that.

When that happens:

1. Downtrend starts when price closes outside the cloud on the 4H chart, meaning Chikou breaks below the price as well. Chance for short entry when price retraces up to around 1.2250, with SL in the range of 40pips.
2. As mentioned at the beginning of this post, a support at 1.2142, which is the low of the previous month. So price might bounce up from this level, a possible formation of Big Blue J wave, a K might then be formed at the flat cloud region on a 4H chart below (blue rectangle)


[4-hourly Chart]

Conclusion:
1. The trend for the coming week is rather uncertain. Several resistance levels to be broken for the uptrend to be confirmed, but a reasonable SL will be rather big. Unless a better SL region can be identified, a long trade is quite risky at the moment.
2. Watch out for reversal pattern on 4H chart if price does move up to around 1.2466 region, when double top is formed. SL in the range of at least 30pips.
3. If price doesn't move up, a short is possible when price closes outside the cloud on the 4H chart. Use cloud, Kijun and Chikou to determine SL. Possible downward resistance is 1.2142.

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EURUSD#5

Can say Big Blue J is formed, awaiting a K retracement? Will watch out around 1.2355. But looking at a slightly bigger picture, on 4H chart, there's a bullish cloud ahead, it takes big bang to pierce the thick cloud.

Perhaps a new J should be formed, before it bounces up the cloud in the 4H chart.

On the day chart, Tenkan is turning up approaching Kijun. If they cross, current C2 might have to be rewritten.

Should I call myself timid, conservative, or downright UNSURE? Hm...I am not even sure of the answer... LOL

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EURUSD#4

EURUSD pair has been adhering to the wave theory very faithfully. It closed exactly at the forecasted 1.1965 last week! I need to persuade myself to believe more in the wave.

That means, current C1 rally is qualified to be called complete, though it can be a larger extension. If it's a complete wave, then a retracement up to 1.2085 is likely to happen this week to form a smal k (note: a very subjective personal feeling is, it might retrace only 1/3 as per Elliott Wave instead of 1/2, which is about 1.2043. Talking about 'personal feeling' in trading market?? Let's see?)


I put a weekly chart here with the ATR indicator, to show that in the past 2 weeks EURUSD has been trading in the range of 400 pips weekly, both with short head but rather long body. If the trend extends to this week (note: past 2 weeks' head:body:tail ratio were 10:270:120 and 80:310:10) then maybe this week will show a short head also? Not sure this kind of assumption makes any sense at all though. Anyway, a 80 pips head will hit 1/3 retracement, and a 120 pips head one will hit 1/2 retracement. I shall watch out closely when the price moves around these 2 region. If there are other clear signal, I might enter a trade, with a SL of a higher retracement level (theoretically 30 pips, might be more due to price actions).

Anyway, if price goes down straightaway tomorrow, I hope I can just stay out of it until some clear signals surfaced. Another subjective judgment is, 1.1874 and 1.1704 to be resistance zone? Well...I can say anything on a weekend, which might turn out to be laughable when the market wakes up :P

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EURUSD#3

Another back-dated post, on what happened on 3 June 2010.

I label the current EURUSD chart as the following, on 3 June night, it's about the second candle after the yellow B:


Knowing it's very likely to be a white L1 wave down, I want to look for an opportunity to enter the ride.

Both 1H and 30m charts have price action and Chikou Span moving above the very thin cloud. It has been a steady trend down from the Yellow B point, the possibility of price piercing through the cloud was higher than the cloud bouncing the price back up. Furthermore, in 4H chart the Chikou span was also already below price, a sign or bearishness.





Price briefly tested kumo on the 30m chart, but it closed some pips above it, which cause the Chikou to pierced through the cloud, it sent my pulse running of course, but I told myself to watch the next candle. That was rather typical "fake move"? Not sure. Come the next candle, it broke the cloud quite convincingly (note: what does it mean "convincingly"?? was it my own subjective interpretation? psychology? biased judgment? or maybe all of the above. Surely not based on experience 'cos i have none) so I entered the trade @1.2219 (green line), SL @1.2234 (red dotted line). The reason of the tight stop loss was, it was already quite a big candle when I entered. So if it pulled back to my SL point, there's a possibility of forming a long hammer-like candle, which might mean another fake signal. (note: of course, it can swing up and down a few times but still form a big black candle in 30min!)

Anyway, once the downtrend was confirmed (big long black candle finally completed, closed way below Kumo), I continued to watch the movement (note: as an inexperienced player, that's the way I feel "secure").

I referred to the Slow Stochastic movement to decide whether I should come out of the trade. there was one white candle, one black, and another white after the big black candle, but the Stochastic was still going down steadily, so I let it ride. Until the hammer formation, which coincide with the turning of the Stochastic, so, closed the trade. My first winning trade :) cheers.

Some side notes:
When I was sitting on some floating profit, I was thinking about moving my SL or maybe put a trailing stop (as it was late at night, I didn't think it was a good idea for a noob to sleep with an open position).

Then there were some scenario:
1. Assume the ride from Yellow B to the hammer as a motive wave, the immediate Fibonacci retracement level (1/3) would be around 1.2206. I could move the SL there, but then it's just 13 pips from my entry, and with my initial SL of about 14 pips, it didn't even make a 1:1 trade! So I decided against it. (note: reviewing it now, it really retraced about 1/3 before a even bigger rally down)

2. Maintain the stop loss. Again, to have an open position wasn't cool. (note: review again, if I maintained the SL...IF...BIG IF....)

3. Close the position, call it a day. Yes, I thought it was a good learning trade, so I closed the trade a while after the hammer was formed.

My first winning trade, but I won't say it was perfect because several things could have happened and to take note:
1. If the initial price swing was bigger, I could be stopped out before it continued it's downward rally as my SL was very small.
2. Was it wise to close the trade instead of maintaining the initial stop loss? (put aside what happened after that, but simply, what was better? Close trade? Keep the trade?)

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EURUSD#2

This is a back-dated post.

I came across this chart formation the next day (3 June):



First, I noticed two antennas of the same heights formed on a 30m chart. That was coupled with the weakening Slow Stochastic on the same chart.


Meanwhile, on 1H chart, it seemed EMA200 (green line) was a resistance to the price action. So, I entered the trade @1.2289, and SL at 1.2325.

The outcome? I was again stopped out almost immediately :-(

The lessons learnt was, even though antennas were formed and price seemed to hit a EMA200 resistance, but other indicators didn't show very clear signal. The Chikou Span, for instance, was just testing the cloud in 1H chart, there was some possibility that it will bump up and down before its direction was confirmed.

A hindsighted review on this trade, it's shown that I was a few pips of SL away from catching a good ride down. Looking at the 4H chart below, perhaps I should use consider the Kumo as the resistance, and therefore allow a larger stop loss to accommodate price fluctuation around Kumo bottom. Kumo bottom is also a two-third retracement from the high on 28 May.



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First Trade EURUSD#1

Saw a triple bottom at 30m EURUSD chart, and looking for a chance to short it if it were to break the triple bottom support. Entered the trade as soon as the black candle piercing the bottom closed, with a 15-pip SL.

No surprise, I was stopped out very soon after that :P

Lessons learnt: always wait for retracement, play safe! Also, looking at Slow Stochastic, it didn't show a clear signal of turning down. Instead, it was in the middle of nowhere, and perhaps showing signs of turning up! To be honest, i didn't do enough study on this before entry. Only a brief look at chart, and the itch of getting into a trade got the better of me.

First trade, a losing one :)

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