EURUSD pair has been adhering to the wave theory very faithfully. It closed exactly at the forecasted 1.1965 last week! I need to persuade myself to believe more in the wave.
That means, current C1 rally is qualified to be called complete, though it can be a larger extension. If it's a complete wave, then a retracement up to 1.2085 is likely to happen this week to form a smal k (note: a very subjective personal feeling is, it might retrace only 1/3 as per Elliott Wave instead of 1/2, which is about 1.2043. Talking about 'personal feeling' in trading market?? Let's see?)
I put a weekly chart here with the ATR indicator, to show that in the past 2 weeks EURUSD has been trading in the range of 400 pips weekly, both with short head but rather long body. If the trend extends to this week (note: past 2 weeks' head:body:tail ratio were 10:270:120 and 80:310:10) then maybe this week will show a short head also? Not sure this kind of assumption makes any sense at all though. Anyway, a 80 pips head will hit 1/3 retracement, and a 120 pips head one will hit 1/2 retracement. I shall watch out closely when the price moves around these 2 region. If there are other clear signal, I might enter a trade, with a SL of a higher retracement level (theoretically 30 pips, might be more due to price actions).
Anyway, if price goes down straightaway tomorrow, I hope I can just stay out of it until some clear signals surfaced. Another subjective judgment is, 1.1874 and 1.1704 to be resistance zone? Well...I can say anything on a weekend, which might turn out to be laughable when the market wakes up :P
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