AUDUSD pair had proved several of my analyses wrong last week. Though it did hti the small blue C1 target (TP was 0.8159), but anything after that was out of my plan. It broke the small blue B, so it's invalid now, though technically I can still call it within Red S wave.
However, looking at weekly chart, EMA200 has been very solid in supporting the downward trend for 4 weeks in a row. Furthermore, it closed with a big solid white candle last week. So, the chances of re-forming Big Red L2 is rather high this week.
If last week's upward momentum sustains, then expect it to move up in the blue channel. If it moves out of it, perhaps it's a sign of weakness. Another indication of uptrend is, tenkan crossed up kijun and above the cloud, as my trading buddy puts it. Trend might remain bullish unless Tenkan-sen crosses down Kijun in the near future.
Three levels of TPs:
1. around 0.8540, which is fb50 retracement of Big Red L1, also the current Big Red L2
2. around 0.8590, EMA200 in 4H chart, also about Kijun in day chart
3. around 0.8700, fb67 retracement
4. around 0.8830, fb80 retracement
5. around 0.9020, fb100, also a C1 WTP if a new x is started on 25 May
Anyway, I shall always observe the market movement. I believe a beginner like me shall behave like a ripple in the wave - always watch the surrounding, a way to build up accuracy.
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