Sunday, June 13, 2010

GBPUSD#5 - Weekly Forecast


Strictly speaking, from day chart, Big Lime L1 is not finished yet, about 20pips short of WTP. But, technical analysis is more of an art than science isn't it? Let's see.


By the way, White R, S still valid. Kijun-sen is also still valid in day chart, to reject the upward movement. The same is true in 4H chart.



4H chart, Tenkan had crossed above Kijun last week, so a short term uptrend can be expected.
Chikou is between Kijun flat and price. Immediate resistance might be Kijun flat, which is fb67 retracement of the previous downward rally. Resistance levels:
1. 1.4590, fb67 retracement, Chikou meet Kijun flat in 4H chart
2. 1.4630, fb50 retracement, Chikou might move near top of the cloud in 4H chart, and also flat Kijun in 1H chart.
3. 1.4700, fb80 retracement, EMA200 in 4H chart

1H chart, price is moving along the cloud bottom, so any price close outside the cloud bottom will be a sign of going down.

Shall look out for reversal sign. If market started out bullish, I expect GBPUSD to take a short ride up before coming down. I think it has little upside, but plenty of room for bear run.

Looking at week chart, it seems it's rather unsure of its own direction? Be very careful, it can go anywhere!

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