EURUSD#14 - Weekly Homework

Euro dropped last week, but wasn't a very huge drop. It's enough to form a black candle engulfing the previous week's body though.

On the weekly chart, price failed to break above EMA50, also means Chikou couldn't break above Kijun. Price was being supported by Kijun around 1.3185, which will continue to be the immediate support. Another stronger support observed on the weekly chart is still 1.3000. As for resistance, EMA50 (currently at 1.3420) is the immediate resistance, followed by EMA200 & Kumo flat around 1.3350. Basically, support resistance levels are similar to those mentioned last week, only the sentiment turned to be even slightly (not too much) more bearish.

On the daily chart, EMA200 successfully bounced price off it, and out of the Kumo, a sign of bearishness. Price is now moving in a flag / channel. It won't be surprise if price might rebound to as high as 1.3380 again, or even 1.3480 (EMA50, Kumo flat bottom). However, 1.3550 will be a strong resistance. Daily Tenkan (around 1.3185) proven to be a support, which coincides Chikou's attempt to pierce through the thin Kumo. For the time being, Chikou has rebounded after touching the bottom of the thin Kumo. Once broken 1.3183, a strong bear run might continue, though 1.3000 will be another support

On the 4-hourly Chart, 1.3185 is the immediate support, successfully supported the price last week. However, with a bullish cloud ahead, it might be a decision time, to break above 1.3300 and aim for 1.3550, or go below 1.3185 and test 1.3000.

~~

EURUSD#13 - Weekly Homework

Euro formed a nice long hammer pattern on weekly chart last week. Though the huge black candle 2 weeks ago, thick Kumo managed to pull price back into the cloud again. That coincides with FB80 retracement for a run from 10 Sep to 4 Nov 2010.

A few resistances on the monthly chart:
1. Kijun & EMA50 - around 1.3550
2. Chikou has hit price action, will it break above it?
3. EMA50 for Chikou - around 1.3460
Support only around 1.3000

Resistances on the weekly chart:
1. Kijun for Chikou & EMA50 for price - around 1.3430
2. Kumo top - around 1.3550, also EMA50 for Chikou
3. Kumo bottom for Chikou - around 1.3800
No clear support other than 1.3000, which is also around Kumo bottom.

On the daily chart, price as break above EMA200 and into the Kumo. However, Friday's high is still inside a channel formed by the lower-highs and lower-lows since 4 Nov. It's still unclear whether it will break out from the channel, or being rejected by the Kumo and stay inside.
A few resistances:
1. EMA50 for both price and Chikou - around 1.3520
2. Kijun, also Chikou pivots - around 1.3625, also FB50 for recent downtrend
3. Kumo top - around 1.3830, also Kijun for Chikou
Supports:
1. EMA200 for Chikou - around 1.3320 to 1.3380
2. Kumo for Chikou - around 1.3180

4-hour chart, Chikou has break above price AND Kijun, showing some strength. Price action had also broken up into the cloud. If price manages to go above 1.3450 early Monday, then resistances are:
1. EMA200 - around 1.3520, near 1.3550 strong resistance
2. Kumo resistance for Chikou
Supports:
1. Kijun and Price action for Chikou

Could be a tricky week to trade. Long term trend still bearish, but if break above 1.3550, might go up further to 1.3830, a short term bull run. Bear run will continue once 1.3000 support is broken.

~~

EURUSD#12 - Weekly Homework

EURUSD didn't go up as I thought, in fact it was almost all the way down, triggered by the tension at Korean Peninsula and Ireland debt crisis.

Last week's low 1.3198 was around FBR67 from September, so 1.3180 will be the immediate support for now.

On Ichi indicators, monthly, weekly and daily charts have all shown bearish signals.

On the 4-hourly chart, 1.3050 to 1.3080 might be the next support (chikou support), and then at 1.3000, which might also be a psychological support level.

There are some room for upward movement, with resistance at 1.3380 to 1.3400 (Daily Kumo bottom). Next resistance is 1.3480, if this resistance is breached then it might signals a short term bull trend that might hit 1.3750, with a few more resistances along the way (1.3550, 1.3630).

In a nutshell:

R3 1. 3550 (Daily Chikou support)
R2 1.3480 (Daily Chikou support)
R1 1.3380 to 1.3400 (Daily Kumo bottom)

S1 1.3180 (FBR67)
S2 1.3050 to 1.3080 (Chikou support)
S3 1.3000 (Chikou support)

~~

EURUSD#11 Weekly Homework

After about 3 weeks of this and that travels, I am back and should pay more attention to the currency pairs again.

This might be an eventful week for Euro. With many important announcements to come, and also it's time to decide the monthly candle formation.

This month's candle formation is shaped by:

1. trend continuation from last month, but resistance found when Chikou bounced back by Kijun in the monthly chart.
2. down trend ever since.
3. slight rebound when supported by cloud in daily chart, and EMA200 and EMA50 in weekly chart.

My guess is Euro will be bullish for a couple of days, with immediate resistance at 1.3730 (4-hourly EMA200) to 1.3750 (4-hourly Chikou support). Another strong resistance is around 1.3865 (fbr 50 of recent downtrend. The pair might linger at that level if it does reach it.

However, if there's too much weakness for it to go up, immediate support at 1.3550 to 1.3590 (4-hourly Kijun). The next support, which might not be strong, at 1.3480, and another stronger one at 1.3381.

In a nutshell:

R3: 1.3910
R2: 1.3865 (fbr 50)
R1: 1.3730 (4-hourly EMA200) to 1.3750 (4-hourly Chikou support)

S1: 1.3550 to 1.3590 (4-hourly Kijun)
S2: 1.3480 (Chikou support)
S3: 1.3380 (daily EMA200, bottom of the cloud)


~~

EURUSD#10 - Week Homework

Also a spinning top on weekly chart, which saw Chikou being rejected by EMA50 and Kijun after a bullish midweek run.

On the daily chart, price action had been steep for more than a month already. As wave target price was fulfilled, there's a high possibility of correction. 1.4185 might be a critical level, breaking which might mean continuation of bull run to the next resistance, in the region of 1.4485.

In a nutshell:
R3: 1.4485
R2: 1.4185
R1: 1.4055 (FB67, level wave target)

S1: 1.3910 to 1.3945 (Chikou support line)
S2: 1.3790 to 1.3840
S3: 1.3630 to 1.3660 (Chikou support line)


~~

GBPUSD#17 - Weekly Homework

Yes, it did come down. But no, it didn't end the week as a black candle.

On the weekly chart, price action has broken above the previous high set back in August, but it actually didn't close above the previous high. The week ended with a spinning top. Still rather unsure! Chikou broke above EMA50, attempted to breach the cloud but failed. Take FB retracement from August 2009 and November 2009, two major resistances at FB67, which are 1.6110 and 1.6010, respectively.

On the daily chart, though a bearish antenna was formed, it's not wise to short this pair too aggressively to be safe, as Ichimoku indicators haven't give signals of weakness. Adventurous play though, can be to short it from 1.6065, with SL covering at least 1.6110.

4-hourly chart, also still bullish signals at least for the time being. However, with thin cloud ahead, a reversal can be rather sharp if it does happen.

In a nutshell:
R3: 1.6350 (FB80)
R2: 1.6110 to 1.6143 (FB67 and Chikou support)
R1: 1.6065

S1: 1.5945 (Chikou support)
S2: 1.5800 to 1.5830 (previous resistance turned support)
S3: 1.5570

~~

Moving Stop Loss

I came up with an entry plan.
I came up with a stop loss.
I came up with a target price.

My entry was matched.
My target price was hit at the end of the day.

I lost money.

Why??
I was too kiasu that I moved my SL to a tighter margin too early, a SL that's lower than the initial plan, but not a level that will make me break even.

Lesson learnt? Don't move your SL unless it's to break even level (protect profit), or to put a trailing stop. What good it has to change a SL from 50pips to 30pips? If I could afford 50pips, why reduce? If I think 50pips was a reasonable margin, why change?

It reads, fear.

~~

EURUSD#9 - Weekly Homework

Gotta give more focus on Euro from now on.

Euro has been bullish for some time now. As Mentor pointed out, it will at least test the flat kumo bottom on the monthly chart. Now it doesn't only test, but actually break into the cloud. Tenkan-Kijun is till in bullish pattern on the monthly chart, but this doesn't give much meaning to short term intraday trades.

On the weekly chart, however, Tenkan-Kijun shows bullish sentiment, albeit is arguably a weak one (crossed below the cloud).

On the daily chart, the price action has gone to far above the cloud. This is when PW comes into play to determine wave targets.

In a nutshell:
R3: 1.4180
R2: 1.4030 to 1.4050 (Last week's high, fb66 retracement, level wave targets)
R1: 1.3945 (Chikou support line on weekly chart)

S1: 1.3790 to 1.3840 (last week's support range in smaller time frame
S2: 1.3630 to 1.3660 (last week's low, Chikou support line)
S3: 1.3330 to 1.3380 (current bull run's 50% retracement)

Personally I don't t expect it to go too much above 1.4050 resistance before it comes down to the range of 1.3330 to 1.3380. However, if it 1.4180 is broken, next target might be 1.4485.

~~

GBPUSD#16 - Weekly Homework

[Weekly Chart]

A doji was formed last week, also saw Chikou failed to break above flat Kijun. It also closed just below fb80 from August's high. Probably a sign of another XAB is formed. Generally, weekly sentiment is a little unsure.



[Daily Chart]

As Trading Buddy pointed out, no candle manage to close above 1.5833 level (week Flat Kijun). Those long candle shadows indicate uncertainty and tug-of-war between the bull and the bear, with bear appear to be slightly stronger for now. However, the last candle was a bullish engulfing.


[4-hourly Chart]
Just to further zoom in to see the uncertain trend. Even Tenkan is overlapping right on the Kijun now.

In a nutshell:
Uncertain trend, with many supports and resistances to watch out for. Sentiment is more bearish-inclined until the previous high (1.5997) is broken.

R2 - 1.5997 (previous high)
R1 - 1.5920 to 1.5945 (last week's high, previous Chikou support)

C - 1.5800 to 1.5833 (4H Chikou support and Weekly Kijun flat)

S1 - 1.5665 (last week's low0
S2 - 1.5570

~~

The Biggest Obstacle is Yourself!

Had been away for vacation for more than a week, haven't been doing much homework yet.

Anyway, thanks Trading Buddy for sharing this nice piece of article. There are truth in every word of it!

"In this crazy business we call forex trading it may be difficult for some to imagine that anyone can remain profitable over the long haul. The markets themselves are often wildly unpredictable so much so that most people find it extremely difficult to be profitable on a single day let alone being able profit of the course of years. Nonetheless there a select few that are able to trade for a living.

These exceptional individuals are able to consistently make a living in a field in which that vast majority of people that try to do so fail miserably. So then what is it about those people that set them apart form the rest of the word? Is it that they are smarter than every one else, or because they have some secret inside information that the rest of the world isn’t privy to? The answer to both of those questions is no, because the real reason behind their success is that while everyone else it looking for the system that is going to solve all of their problems, these traders are working on the only thing that matters… themselves.

You see at the end of the day a system is only as good as the trader that’s implementing it. So if you have the best system in the world but your mindset is horrible then you have no chance at succeeding as a trader. You need to learn how to control your emotions such as greed and fear of taking a loss, as well as changing the way you think about trading. For example many new traders see trading as a quick route to riches instead of the business that it is. This disconnect between their idealization of trading and the harsh realities of this business is the reason why so many of them fail. The few that go on to be successful traders have eliminated or at the very least limited these negative thinking patterns and if you hope to join them one day then you are going to have to do the same. So from now on instead scouring the internet looking for new trading methods and techniques, take some time to figure out the thinking patterns and emotions that are harming your trading and get rid of them."

~~

GBPUSD#15 - Weekly Homework

Weekly chart has seen candle come out of the cloud. It seems retracement is not yet complete for a bullish motive wave from end of May to the beginning of August. Weekly candle closed slightly below FB33 retracement and back into the downward channel again, might go down further to test FB50 retracement (1.5115) which coincides with Kijun-sen, or the bottom of the cloud on the daily chart (1.5170).

Currently price is in a range between 4-hourly EMA200 and a support range between 1.5290 and 1.5350.

R2 - 1.5520 (previous support-turn-resistance)
R1 - 1.5460 (4-hourly Kumo Top) or 4-hourly EMA200

S1 - range between 1.5290 and 1.5350
S2 - range between 1.5170 (daily kumo bottom) and 1.5115 (fb50 retracement)


~~

GBPUSD#14 - Weekly Homework

[Monthly Chart]
Last month finished forming a dark cloud. This month, after over 3 trading days, looking to be forming the top shadow of a black candle? Too early to say anyway.


[Weekly Chart]
It has been 3 consecutive weeks of rather small range, and small body. though it's been making a slow down trend, short bodies might signifies uncertainties. Anyway, it's broken below EMA50, being supported by Kumo Bottom.


[Daily Chart]
Price has been moving in a bearish channel. However, a bullish cloud is immediately ahead. Price might enter Kumo and bounce up.


[4-hourly Chart]
EMA50 continues to be the trend definition since August.

In a nutshell:
R2 - 1.5576 (previous week high)
R1 - 1.5520 (previous support turned resistance)

S1 - 1.5325 - 1.5340 (previous week low)
S2 - 1.5170 (daily chart kumo bottom)

EMA200 and EMA50 are always helpful indicators of support and resistance too.

~~

GBPUSD#14 - Weekly Homework

[Monthly Chart] - GBPUSD is making up a dark cloud cover pattern this month. with 7 to 8 trading days remaining in August, I do not expect it to reverse the formation. There's no big figures pending this week that might drive it up so drastically. Which also means, no big figure from the UK itself to crash it down violently?


[Weekly Chart]


[Daily Chart]

Last week has been trading within in a tight range, with 1.5550 being a very solid support, until the last day. The week closed with a black candle closing below the S1 mentioned last week, though being supported by S2, and EMA50. On weekly chart, Chikou has bounced back by price action.


[4-hourly Chart]
EMA200 support has been very solid (more so on Netdania chart). Thick bearish Kumo ahead.

In a nutshell:
S1 - EMA200 on 4-hourly Chart
S2 - 1.5460 (last week's low) to 1.5433 (daily EMA200)
S3 - 1.5340 (weekly Kumo bottom)

R1 - 1.5550 (previous support)
R2 - 1.5622 (or 4-hourly EMA50)
R3 - 1.5769 (4-hourly Kumo top)

General sentiment is bearish, with daily EMA200, and then EMA50, being crucial supports. Breaking R3 (1.5769) might mean an end to current bearish sentiment and might go for 1.6000 region.


~~

GBPUSD#13 - Weekly Homework

Very clear bearish engulfing pattern on the weekly chart. Immediate support 1.5475 (fb33, Kijun in daily chart and EMA200 in daily chart) and 1.5340 (Kumo bottom). Chikou seems to meet price resistance. Stochastic has been waiting to come down for than a month.


Breaking of Kijun and EMA200 will mean a lot!


4-hourly chart, resistance at 1.5733 (fb50 retracement of Tenkan-Kijun crossing) and 1.5769 (Kumo bottom).

R1 - 1.5733
R2 - 1.5769
R3 - 1.5997 (recent high, breaking of which will signal the end of bearish retracement)

S1 - 1.5550
S2 - 1.5472
S3 - 1.5340

~~

EURUSD#8 - Weekly Homework

[30m Chart]
If I were to trade early movement, short at 1.2915 to 1.2929, SL 40 to 50 pips, first target around 1.2835. Second target around 1.2795. SL should be able to cover previous high of 1.2964.


[Daily Chart]

From what I can see TODAY:
S1 ~ 1.2835
S2 ~ 1.2795
S3 ~ 1.2735, then 1.2690
R1 ~ 1.2965
R2 ~ 1.3025
R3 ~ 1.3090

~~

Staying vs. Exit

"Don’t be afraid to exit a trade if it starts to become unpredictable or out of character. However, don’t close out a trade just because you are nervous, if it still meets most of your criteria."

~~

GBPUSD#12 - Day Homework

GBPUSD didn't drop as much as initially expected. What about this now? Still can't catch it's behaviour.

Still will watch out when it nears double-top. There seem to be a strong resistance there.

Short entry possible at 1.5240 - 1.5275. SL 30 - 50pips


~~

GBPUSD#11 Weekly Homework

In the daily chart, GBPUSD seems to be moving within a range with last week's high and low as boundaries. There's a good chance it might continue to move in that pattern in the early week. As Trading Buddy said, it might be good chance to play within the S&R range.

It may still hit the high of between 1.5240 (fb80 from Big White B) and 1.5270 (Big Red L1 target).



Look at the 4-hourly chart, even though the price has been bouncing above the cloud last week, but last week's close saw Chikou finally broken below the price. It's a weak bearish sign because it cross the price above the cloud. Another reason to think it will go sideway.

Another scenario is, the price to drop to the flat top of the cloud (around 1.4870, also fb67 from last week's high in the daily chart), or flat kijun (around 1.4795, or fb50 retracement from bigger wave from the low of 8 June), before going up. Can look for chance to long at these 2 regions.

A good place to short will be EMA200 in the daily chart, around 1.5400. Shall observe more in the coming week.


~~

EURUSD#7 Weekly Homework

Last week EURUSD had retraced up beyond fb33 level, but just below fb50. For bigger trend, expect it to touch fb50 anyway.

In a daily chart, the flat top of the cloud can be a strong resistance against an uptrend. Can look out for short opportunities at 1.28 region. However, if price closed above the flat top, bullish trend will continue to 1.31 (fb67), even 1.33 (fb80). When price ever hit 1.33, a reversal might soon take place.

For shorter term play, first to watch out for short at 1.2690, SL 30 - 40 pips, TP 1.2480.
Long position can be at EMA200 of 4H chart, around 1.2460, or trendline at 1.2400.

p/s: Trading buddy, finally ripple got update, thanks for constant encouragement, haha. Had one winning and one losing trade in the past week, there's a big room for improvement.


~~

My Reply to Trading Buddy

"thanks for the sharing
it's tempting and itchy watch pairs drop as we thought, but not quite exactly as we planned
but i'm glad to take it as a free lesson also

not only when we lose money that got lessons to learn, but it's the same when we're not making money (or loss); why missed, why i choose not to trade, why others make money and me not:

1. i missed because it was more momentous than i predicted earlier
2. i chose not to trade because it might mess up my plan - imagine in a military operation, when everyone is on position, waiting for a target to go near to a certain location and then the sniper will pull the trigger followed by other units' actions. but now the sniper saw the target was walking sooo slowly, and so easy to hit the target, so he releases a shot.... whatever the outcome is, it would make the operation plan invalid.
3. others make money and i don't because it's not my strategy. Germany could thrash England 4-1 because they played team game, quick in counter attack, strong physique. If Brazil use the same tactic to play against England, maybe different result because their playing styles are different. Use their own tactic maybe they'll win 1-0, but it is still a win.

at least this time market's movement didn't make me confuse :D if it moved according to what i initially planned, but i still got swung out, then i'll have to stare at the wall for a few moments first to gain clearer mind...haha"

~~

AUDUSD#7 - Weekly Homework

[Monthly Chart]

Cloud has been good support in the monthly chart. Good chance this month will close above the cloud.


[Weekly Chart]

A brief bullish run at the end of last week didn't manage to push the price to close above the cloud, so near term uptrend is yet to be confirmed.


[Daily Chart]

Monday's movement is crucial to determine the immediate direction:

1. If it closed above the flat top of the cloud (also around EMA200), wait for retracement to long, with WTP around 0.9020, where the Big Red K is. But a reasonable SL should be last week's low, which is too big for day trade :-S Another SL option is around 0.8690, which is where Chikou might hit flat Kijun, but then...how valid is that SL?
2. If closed back into the cloud, use Chikou and flat Kijun's interaction for short entry. SL is big again, last week's high (0.8858). Another option is EMA200 (0.8762). WTP to be calculated based on wave formation.
3. Two possibilities of double-top reversal, at 0.8858 and between 0.9025 to 0.9076. Observe lower time frame candles for possible short entry.


[4-Hourly Chart]

Looking at the 4H chart, the bullish cloud is thinning, a downtrend is possible

~~

EURUSD#6 - Weekly Homework

[Monthly Chart]

EMA200 is being good support in the monthly chart. 3 more trading days before July, so far it is a hammer pattern. How will it close this month?

I attended the TA Weekly Meeting at IIC for the first time. There I learned to mark Support & Resistance using current and previous month's highs and lows. There are 3 lines for reference now, 1.2466, 1.2142 and 1.1875.


[Daily Chart]

On a daily chart, Big Blue C2 is being labeled tentatively, which is about fb33 retracement. However, the bullish sentiment from last week might sustain and continue to move up and break 1.2466 (C2). Reasons to call it bullish:

1. Price closed above flat Kijun for 3 days already, Kijun might be a good support for now
2. Tenkan-Kijun cross in daily chart
3. Price above the cloud on the 4H chart, and the cloud seems to be thick enough as a good support for going up for a while


[4-hourly Chart]


[Hourly Chart]

There are several resistances to consider:

1. EMA200 on 4H chart, about 1.2400
2. Last week's high, about 1.2466, where a double top is to be formed
3. fb33 retracement of Big Blue C1, about 1.2480

If all these resistances were breached, uptrend is confirmed, then the immediate WTP is 1.2611, which is 2x A, about the bottom of the cloud on the daily chart. However, a strong bull might run up to 1.2785 region, which is 3x A, fb50 retracement of the Big Blue C1, Chikou meets Kijun and the flat top of the cloud on the daily chart.

If the resistances cannot be broken, then price might fall back to about 1.2272, which is about the flat Kijun on the daily chart, stay inside the cloud on a 4H chart, and a downtrend might happen after that.

When that happens:

1. Downtrend starts when price closes outside the cloud on the 4H chart, meaning Chikou breaks below the price as well. Chance for short entry when price retraces up to around 1.2250, with SL in the range of 40pips.
2. As mentioned at the beginning of this post, a support at 1.2142, which is the low of the previous month. So price might bounce up from this level, a possible formation of Big Blue J wave, a K might then be formed at the flat cloud region on a 4H chart below (blue rectangle)


[4-hourly Chart]

Conclusion:
1. The trend for the coming week is rather uncertain. Several resistance levels to be broken for the uptrend to be confirmed, but a reasonable SL will be rather big. Unless a better SL region can be identified, a long trade is quite risky at the moment.
2. Watch out for reversal pattern on 4H chart if price does move up to around 1.2466 region, when double top is formed. SL in the range of at least 30pips.
3. If price doesn't move up, a short is possible when price closes outside the cloud on the 4H chart. Use cloud, Kijun and Chikou to determine SL. Possible downward resistance is 1.2142.

~~

AUDUSD#6 - Position

Big Red L2 seems to be formed now, and a J wave down is on the way.

Now I label again a new small yellow xab from Big Red L2. It seems it's half way C1 now, but there are always opportunities for entries when retracements happen.

Before badminton, the price was hovering around 0.8730 but seemingly on the up. I placed a sell order at 0.8750, which is about the bottom of the cloud and above the Kijun-sen on 1H chart. SL was rather big, just above the cloud. Target price is 0.8735, slightly above 4H EMA200. Small yellow c1 TP is 0.8619.

When I return from badminton games, I was then in the trade, with a little floating profit. (Another sell order for EURUSD wasn't done)

Saw a hammer pattern on 1H chart, was thinking about closing trade and wait for re-entry? Set trailing stop? Move SL? Closing the trade was rather tempting, but in the end I decided against it because:

1. TP is 0.8635, and the plan is still intact
2. It might be just yet another retracement on the way down, with lower-highs being formed along the way.
3. I should try to stick to my plan as my mentor told me (note: however, how do I know my plan good enough?) and pick up more lessons throughout

Finally, as of time of posting, I've moved my SL to 0.8765, day high, and also around the trend line. But my floating profit is only 25 pips now.

Let's see what happen next.

p/s: England won, with much better football this time but still rather dull. The Americans' spirited performance won them a deserved victory and qualification to the Round of 16.


~~

EURUSD#5

Can say Big Blue J is formed, awaiting a K retracement? Will watch out around 1.2355. But looking at a slightly bigger picture, on 4H chart, there's a bullish cloud ahead, it takes big bang to pierce the thick cloud.

Perhaps a new J should be formed, before it bounces up the cloud in the 4H chart.

On the day chart, Tenkan is turning up approaching Kijun. If they cross, current C2 might have to be rewritten.

Should I call myself timid, conservative, or downright UNSURE? Hm...I am not even sure of the answer... LOL

~~

AUDUSD#5

Sidewalk continues. Though a good S/R trader might have made a handsome profit, but I'm still on the sideline. On 1H chart, the price is now below the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen after a long while. 0.8800 appears to be a good resistance for now. But I haven't got a convincing reason to trade :-S

~~

AUDUSD#4 - wait

My trading buddy has always been studying this pair.


From 4H chart, Tenkan-sen still moving above Kijun-sen. So it remains bullish for the time being, though the big gap-up today is waiting to be closed some time.

It's currently at fb80 retracement from the Big Red L1 down wave. A reversal can just happen anytime, confirmation will be Tenkan-Kijun crossing.


No bearish cross of Tenkan-Kijun in 1H chart as well.


Tenkan is crossing Kijun at the time of writing, but doesn't look like a steep and convincing cross.

Wait.

~~

GBPUSD#10 - Day Homework

After breaking a little above last week's high, GBPUSD is on course for a fb67 retracement from recent high. Don't expect it to move tamely to TP of 1.4710 though.

~~

Feedback

"The real world is a feedback mechanism. When you climb on the bathroom scale and find you are twenty pounds overweight, that is feedback. if you are fired, broke, or divorced, that, too, is feedback...unfortunately, many ... don't accept or learn from the feedback they receive..."

-- Robert T. Kiyosaki

confusion in making trading plans is a feedback
not being able to see a clear direction is a feedback
shrinking fund size is a feedback
feeling lack of confidence is a feedback
can't understand what other traders are talking about is a feedback

likewise,
being able to read the market movement is a feedback
market movement well within your prediction is a feedback
increasing fund is a feedback

Life's full of feedback in one form or another, but they are useless if you can't make use of them to work for your benefit.

~~

GBPUSD#9 - Weekly Homework

I believe Red C2 retracement is not done yet, though last week it briefly touched a fb67 from the high of 1.4886.

In day chart, an antenna was formed. Chances of going down on Monday is high. Immediate target is EMA200 on 4H chart (1.4713), 1.4676 (fb67). J, K will build up after that.

However, if it opens and breaks above last week's high, the next target is around 1.5109, the first possibility of forming a Big Green L2.

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GBPUSD#8 - Stopped Out

I entered this trade as planned. Shorted it when it closed outside the cloud again. But a quick and sharp reversal happened soon after that.

When I got stopped out, it was actually a nice reversal pattern formed, but didn't go for it as I thought I should not react so impulsively.

One thing about the entry was, the Chikou did not break and close below the cloud. So it wasn't a very safe entry in fact.

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GBPUSD#7

GBPUSD hit TP of 1.4854 last night and started to come down immediately.

A possible retracement is FB67, where Chikou is going to hit the bottom of the cloud and around EMA200 on 1H chart. It's also 20 pips below flat Kijun on 4H chart. Shall watch out for the market direction around that region.

Plan:

1. If 1H price bounces up to 1.4703 (EMA200 on 4H), wait for price to close outside cloud to short, TP 1.4655. But I'll have to see then where a reasonable SL should be, and calculate the possible risk:reward ratio. A no go if it's less than 1:2

2.If price fall to 1.4655, watch out closely if it shows sign to bounce up or going further down. For short, SL around EMA200 on 1H chart, TP 1.4555.

 

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AUDUSD#3 - Sidewalking

AUDUSD has been bullish. In fact, everything has been bullish since last week.

However, AUDUSD is sidewalking at the moment. A ceiling resembling a triple top is being formed now. It will make a decision again. Support and Resistance (S&R) traders will like this kind of pattern very much? Join the ride when it breaks from the ceiling or floor, with SL placed rather tightly back into the S&R region. From the history, this kind of trade will require quite an amount of monitoring as the reward can be small (though windfalls happened at times).

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Range

Got one reminder from my fellow trading buddy today, that market can go in any of the three directions: up, down, flat. So, how to plan a trade? Study the chart and find a range, higher than which will mean a uptrend and vice versa. Will it work? I'll try...

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GBPUSD#6 - Question: What is Reversal?

I am always confused, how to define reversal? Then I recall Ayumi had a similar doubt. After re-reading the table quoted from Investopedia, I'm still wondering.

While it's easy to always assume market moves in my preferred direction. At this moment, I just think everything is going down. But to be a trader, it's important to "trade what you see, not what you think!"

Some traders were already calling for an uptrend of some pairs like EURUSD and GBPUSD, while I was thinking anything that goes up is merely "retracement".

But after seeing EURUSD and GBPUSD running loose like bulls, I was left wonder, what should my strategy be?

From the area highlighted blue in the chart above, should I call it a retracement from what I labeled White L1? Even yes, should I trade against the major trend, i.e. trading the reversal?

If the retracement wave is a big one (across at least 1 or 2 weeks), what's the pros and cons of trading the retracement?

Trading a retracement wave of a 4H chart or less might be strenuous, requires much attention, what about something larger than that?

Another point to ponder.

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Remember the F Chord Experience

Had a short talk with my mentor. I complained about difficulty in seeing a clear trend of the market.

Not that I expect myself to be seeing trends like a pro anytime now, but, just a vent of frustration.

While talking, I reminded myself of my guitar learning journey when I was back in middle school.

If you ever learned guitar, you might agree that the first major hurdle to overcome was getting the F Major Chord right. You must have cursed and grumbled on numerous occasions when you had to press 2 strings firmly with only your index finger!

Many people, including myself, had tried to find ways round it - use two different fingers for different strings, skipping one of the strings, or skip learning the chord even guitar altogether! But after a few futile attempts, I came to realise that there's NO way round it. If here was, someone would have thought about it some decades ago.

Just like in a hurdle race, the first major hurdle can be the finishing line for many. But for those who had leaped over it, they would gain momentum, confidence, and pace. No smooth run after that, more hurdles to come, but they don't appear as difficult as the first one.

I have no problem with F Chord now of course. If any beginner comes to me asking how to learn F Chord? The only answer is, practice! I guess that's the magic word I'll get if I were to ask "how to see market more clearly?" Having said that, predicting the market trend is just the first hurdle. More to come. Will they appear less difficult than the first one? Maybe not.

Pat on my own shoulders and say, "Jia You!"

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GBPUSD#5 - Weekly Forecast

Strictly speaking, from day chart, Big Lime L1 is not finished yet, about 20pips short of WTP. But, technical analysis is more of an art than science isn't it? Let's see.


By the way, White R, S still valid. Kijun-sen is also still valid in day chart, to reject the upward movement. The same is true in 4H chart.



4H chart, Tenkan had crossed above Kijun last week, so a short term uptrend can be expected.
Chikou is between Kijun flat and price. Immediate resistance might be Kijun flat, which is fb67 retracement of the previous downward rally. Resistance levels:
1. 1.4590, fb67 retracement, Chikou meet Kijun flat in 4H chart
2. 1.4630, fb50 retracement, Chikou might move near top of the cloud in 4H chart, and also flat Kijun in 1H chart.
3. 1.4700, fb80 retracement, EMA200 in 4H chart

1H chart, price is moving along the cloud bottom, so any price close outside the cloud bottom will be a sign of going down.

Shall look out for reversal sign. If market started out bullish, I expect GBPUSD to take a short ride up before coming down. I think it has little upside, but plenty of room for bear run.

Looking at week chart, it seems it's rather unsure of its own direction? Be very careful, it can go anywhere!

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AUDUSD#2 - Weekly Forecast

AUDUSD pair had proved several of my analyses wrong last week. Though it did hti the small blue C1 target (TP was 0.8159), but anything after that was out of my plan. It broke the small blue B, so it's invalid now, though technically I can still call it within Red S wave.

However, looking at weekly chart, EMA200 has been very solid in supporting the downward trend for 4 weeks in a row. Furthermore, it closed with a big solid white candle last week. So, the chances of re-forming Big Red L2 is rather high this week.



If last week's upward momentum sustains, then expect it to move up in the blue channel. If it moves out of it, perhaps it's a sign of weakness. Another indication of uptrend is, tenkan crossed up kijun and above the cloud, as my trading buddy puts it. Trend might remain bullish unless Tenkan-sen crosses down Kijun in the near future.

Three levels of TPs:
1. around 0.8540, which is fb50 retracement of Big Red L1, also the current Big Red L2
2. around 0.8590, EMA200 in 4H chart, also about Kijun in day chart
3. around 0.8700, fb67 retracement
4. around 0.8830, fb80 retracement
5. around 0.9020, fb100, also a C1 WTP if a new x is started on 25 May

Anyway, I shall always observe the market movement. I believe a beginner like me shall behave like a ripple in the wave - always watch the surrounding, a way to build up accuracy.


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Technical Forecasting

My mentor says to be a successful trader, one has to be well equipped in 3 major aspects - technical, psychology, and risk management.

Technical analysis and forecasting are something that one can learn, through books, teachings, lectures, etc. The same is true for risk management. There are theories to be learned, and it's up to one to apply what he had learned. The biggest obstacle is always the psychology part. It can only be learned through one's own journey and experience - trips and tumbles, though advices and sharing from others can help to reduce the steepness of the learning curve.

Yes, these are all right.

But I was wrong in thinking the technical part is not too difficult, or rather just a small part out of the three.

Last week, I was amazed by how accurate others could forecast the price action, almost to the pip-accurate precision.

I know I'm still an infant in this Live! world. Like my mentor said, I'm only a first week student in a degree course, why am I thinking to write a graduate thesis already? There are so much to grasp and observe. I'm glad I'm not alone on this journey, that I can learn this field with my trading buddies and mentor. With the availability of opportunities and information around, it's really up to one's desire to decide how much he wants to learn, and at what pace. Of course, talents always play some part in.

Pat on my own shoulders and say, jia you!

GBPUSD #4 - First Try of Using Open Order

In 4H chart, after price action bounced up after hitting cloud bottom, I was always looking out for a reversal sign (note: again, was I biased??). I identified several possibilities of resistance:

1. 2/3 retracement, approx. 1.4608
2. Top of cloud, approx. 1.4630
3. 80% retracement, approx 1.4661
4. EMA200 on 4H chart

While observing price action around the first few options, there were no clear sign of weakness (although it always showed a few fake moves). Finally I thought it should not break the EMA200, and even it does, won't be by a big margin, else it would be break the small white x. So, I placed an open short order around EMA200.

When I wake up, there wasn't anything in my "Open Position" window. But that was just because my order had been matched, and SL triggered T_T

Lesson learnt? Hm...I don't think it's so wise for a beginner like me to put an open order just like that? Not until I can forecast the market rather better.

By the way, I didn't fail to notice a nice reversal sign on 4H chart, a Dark Cloud Cover was formed! But due to technical problems, I couldn't place an order -.-

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GBPUSD#3 - Winning but Not Satisfying Trade

As planned in the very beginning of last week, was expecting GBPUSD to form a Big White R, S waves before T extension. Also, forecast GBPUSD to go up slightly before continuing it's rally down.

However, it happened quite the opposite - dropped a bit at the beginning of the week before a bullish run up.

As labeled in the 1H chart above, I entered the trade after the Dark Cloud Cover reversal pattern, predicting it might be the end of S wave and start of T.

It went down as predicted, and of course I was glad.



I woke up the next morning with rather satisfying (for me level) 60-odd pips. But as now shown on the chart, it was a strong bull run for 2 days. Though I didn't get my SL triggered, but I exited the trade with less than 20 pips of profit. Of course any profit can't be bad, but as a review, I think I should have exited from the trade when 4H chart showed the downward action was disrupted when the candle break the bottom of the cloud but closed as a white candle way inside the cloud. It was a sign of weak bear.

Lesson learnt.


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